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01 Nov ISIS – Iowa – Pennsylvania – Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Posted at 17:31h in Lunchtime Politics by

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 1

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%Down 1 from yesterdayRON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (WaPo/ABC) to 45% (The Economist, Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 41%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (higher than it has been for a long time), which is 13 points above his approval rating. This average reinforces the idea that, while Trump’s base is holding, opposition to him keeps solidifying.

IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide

Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 18%
Joe Biden: 17%
Michael Bennet: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: While this New York Times/Siena poll puts Warren first, what it really shows is a four-way battle in Iowa––where anything can happen. Fourth place for Biden in Iowa is not a very comfortable spot for the supposed frontrunner, and this is the second poll in a row showing that. Buttigieg is moving up. Sanders hangs in, to Warren’s detriment…. The previous poll, by Iowa State, had Warren ahead by 8 points, garnering 28% of the vote. It put Buttigieg second.

PENNSYLVANIA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic voters statewide

Joe Biden: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Michael Bennet: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Compared to the early August poll by the same outfit, Biden is up 2 points and Warren is down 3 points…. Pennsylvania is a big state with plenty of delegates and is a critical swing state for the general election. It’s also where Biden was born. This poll shows him leading Warren by 12 points.

TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?

Democratic candidate: 48% (-1 since last week)
Trump: 41% (+1 since last week)
It depends: 8%

RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 7 points, down from 9 points last week.

ISIS

Among voters nationwide

Has ISIS been completely defeated?

Yes: 6%
No: 77%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters overwhelmingly believe ISIS still hasn’t been defeated.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling ISIS?

Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 42%

RON’S COMMENT: Most voters approve of Trump’s handling of ISIS, although it falls short of a majority. By party: 16% of Democrats, 39% of independents and 84% of Republicans approve.

Sources

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS: NYT, Siena, Oct. 25-30
PENNSYLVANIA: Franklin & Marshall, Oct. 21-27
ISIS, TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 27-29

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.