24 Feb Biden Holds South Carolina Lead – Sanders Riding High – More Signs of Bloomberg Damage
Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, February 24
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, the average is 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as Friday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters nationwide
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +3 (47-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Though Biden and Bloomberg have based their campaigns on their ability to beat Trump, Sanders does better than either of them. In fact, in this post-debate poll, everybody does better against Trump than Bloomberg, who loses by 3 points. More evidence that the debate damaged the former NYC mayor’s candidacy…. In any event, these numbers paint the picture of a highly competitive general election.
Among voters statewide
Sanders over Trump: +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: This Virginia poll has all six Democrats leading Trump by clear margins, with Sanders doing best. Virginia voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections. Clinton beat Trump here by 5 points…. Also from the poll report: “Approval for Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam was up to 40 percent, but disapproval stands at 41 percent, which is higher than immediately after the governor’s ‘blackface’ scandal broke.”
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Bernie Sanders: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: This new national poll, taken after last week’s debate, has Sanders in the lead with Warren in second place, an indication that the Massachusetts senator helped herself in the debate…. Klobuchar is far from double digits…. In terms of candidate consideration: 48% say they’d consider voting for Sanders, 44% would consider Warren, 38% Biden, 29% Buttigieg and 27% Bloomberg…. Only 42% of voters say they’ve “definitely” made up their minds.
Among Democratic voters in each state
South Carolina Primary
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s holding a lead in his “firewall” state with Sanders second…. Among whites, it’s Sanders 23%, Biden 18%, Warren 18% and Buttigieg 18%. Among blacks, it’s Biden 35%, Steyer 24%, Sanders 23%, Warren 8% and Buttigieg 4%…. If Biden wins the primary, it keeps him in the game until Super Tuesday where he’d have a chance to pick up additional Southern wins. The primary is Saturday, Feb. 29 for 54 delegates
RON’S COMMENT: The previous poll (taken before the debate) had Klobuchar beating Sanders 27-21 in her home state. This poll (taken before and after the debate) has it 29-23. If Klobuchar doesn’t win her home state, it may knock her out of the race…. Interestingly, the previous poll had Bloomberg at 9%. This newer poll has him falling to 3%. Buttigieg also dropped from 10% to 3%…. The primary is March 3 for 75 delegates.
RON’S COMMENT: This poll, taken mostly before last Wednesday’s debate, has Sanders leading Michigan with Biden second. The previous poll we reported, taken two weeks earlier, had Biden leading Sanders 34-28. Quite a turnaround. The primary is March 10 for 125 delegates
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders is running away with Wisconsin in a poll taken mostly before last week’s debate. There is a 4-way traffic jam for second place. The primary is not until April 7 for 84 delegates
RON’S COMMENT: In a poll taken mostly before the debate, Sanders has overtaken Biden in Biden’s birth state. Bloomberg, at the time the poll was conducted, was in contention. The primary is not until April 28 for 186 delegates.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT, NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: CBS News/YouGov, Feb. 20-22
SOUTH CAROLINA: CBS News/YouGov, Feb. 20-22
VIRGINIA: Roanoke College, Feb. 9-18
PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN: Univ. of Wisconsin/State Journal, Feb. 11-20
MINNESOTA: Star Tribune/Mason Dixon, Feb. 17-20
NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.
ELITE AUDIENCE RESEARCH BY CERTUS INSIGHTS
Elite audience surveys can provide valuable insights for any organization. They establish critical benchmarks and guide effective messaging, issue assessments, tactical targeting and advocacy activation. See how Certus Insights approaches this specialized research and what it can do for your association, nonprofit or business: http://bit.ly/2KkjDke
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at email@example.com.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux