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Biden Holds South Carolina Lead – Sanders Riding High – More Signs of Bloomberg Damage

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, February 24


Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, the average is 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as Friday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.


Among voters nationwide

Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +3 (47-44)
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (47-45)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +1 (46-45)
Pete Buttigieg and Donald Trump: even (44-44)
Donald Trump over Amy Klobuchar: +1 (45-44)
Donald Trump over Michael Bloomberg: +3 (45-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Though Biden and Bloomberg have based their campaigns on their ability to beat Trump, Sanders does better than either of them. In fact, in this post-debate poll, everybody does better against Trump than Bloomberg, who loses by 3 points. More evidence that the debate damaged the former NYC mayor’s candidacy…. In any event, these numbers paint the picture of a highly competitive general election.


Among voters statewide

Sanders over Trump: +9 (49-40)
Biden over Trump: +8 (48-40)
Warren over Trump: +7 (48-41)
Buttigieg and Trump: +7 (47-40)
Klobuchar over Trump: +7 (46-39)
Bloomberg over Trump: +6 (46-40)

RON’S COMMENT: This Virginia poll has all six Democrats leading Trump by clear margins, with Sanders doing best. Virginia voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections. Clinton beat Trump here by 5 points…. Also from the poll report: “Approval for Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam was up to 40 percent, but disapproval stands at 41 percent, which is higher than immediately after the governor’s ‘blackface’ scandal broke.”


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Bernie Sanders: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Joe Biden: 17%
Michael Bloomberg: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This new national poll, taken after last week’s debate, has Sanders in the lead with Warren in second place, an indication that the Massachusetts senator helped herself in the debate…. Klobuchar is far from double digits…. In terms of candidate consideration: 48% say they’d consider voting for Sanders, 44% would consider Warren, 38% Biden, 29% Buttigieg and 27% Bloomberg…. Only 42% of voters say they’ve “definitely” made up their minds.


Among Democratic voters in each state

South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 28%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Tom Steyer: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s holding a lead in his “firewall” state with Sanders second…. Among whites, it’s Sanders 23%, Biden 18%, Warren 18% and Buttigieg 18%. Among blacks, it’s Biden 35%, Steyer 24%, Sanders 23%, Warren 8% and Buttigieg 4%…. If Biden wins the primary, it keeps him in the game until Super Tuesday where he’d have a chance to pick up additional Southern wins. The primary is Saturday, Feb. 29 for 54 delegates

Minnesota Primary
Amy Klobuchar: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Joe Biden: 8%
Michael Bloomberg: 3%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT:  The previous poll (taken before the debate) had Klobuchar beating Sanders 27-21 in her home state. This poll (taken before and after the debate) has it 29-23. If Klobuchar doesn’t win her home state, it may knock her out of the race…. Interestingly, the previous poll had Bloomberg at 9%. This newer poll has him falling to 3%. Buttigieg also dropped from 10% to 3%…. The primary is March 3 for 75 delegates.

Michigan Primary
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Joe Biden: 16%
Michael Bloomberg: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Amy Klobuchar: 8%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This poll, taken mostly before last Wednesday’s debate, has Sanders leading Michigan with Biden second. The previous poll we reported, taken two weeks earlier, had Biden leading Sanders 34-28. Quite a turnaround. The primary is March 10 for 125 delegates

Wisconsin Primary
Bernie Sanders: 30%
Michael Bloomberg: 13%
Joe Biden: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 12%
Amy Klobuchar: 9%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Sanders is running away with Wisconsin in a poll taken mostly before last week’s debate. There is a 4-way traffic jam for second place. The primary is not until April 7 for 84 delegates

Pennsylvania Primary
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Joe Biden: 20%
Michael Bloomberg: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: In a poll taken mostly before the debate, Sanders has overtaken Biden in Biden’s birth state. Bloomberg, at the time the poll was conducted, was in contention. The primary is not until April 28 for 186 delegates.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
SOUTH CAROLINA: CBS News/YouGov, Feb. 20-22
VIRGINIA: Roanoke College, Feb. 9-18
PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN: Univ. of Wisconsin/State Journal, Feb. 11-20
MINNESOTA: Star Tribune/Mason Dixon, Feb. 17-20

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.