20 Feb ERA – South Carolina – Arizona Senate – Election Boxscore – Candidate Favorability
Your Daily Polling Update
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, the average is 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE
by Ron Faucheux
This was the bloodiest debate we’ve seen, the kind of circular firing squad that weakens Democrats for November.
BOXSCORE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Average of most recent general election polls
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4.3
RON’S COMMENT: In the Lunchtime Politics Boxscore, which averages the four most recent national general election polls in the presidential race, all six Democrats are leading Trump, but Biden does best. (Warren’s average is based on the most recent two polls available.)
SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Joe Biden: 23%
RON’S COMMENT: The poll we reported yesterday showed a tie between Biden and Sanders in the crucial South Carolina primary. This poll, which is a bit more recent, shows Biden edging Sanders by 2 points. In any case, this state is now a lot closer than a “firewall” should be for Biden. This poll was taken before last night’s debate. Internal data:
SENATE: ARIZONA 2020
Among voters statewide
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +7 (46-39)
RON’S COMMENT: If this poll is accurate, it’s good news for Democrats––and may mean appointed-incumbent McSally’s vote against removal of the president did some damage to her prospects. This Senate seat will be a major battleground this November. In the survey data:
FAVORABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Among voters nationwide
Among all voters nationwide
EQUAL RIGHTS AMENDMENT
Among voters nationwide
The Equal Rights Amendment, first proposed in 1972, guarantees equal rights for all citizens regardless of sex. Would you support or oppose such an amendment being added to the US Constitution?
Support ERA: 68%
RON’S COMMENT: 85% of Democrats, 62% of independents, 53% of Republicans, 64% of men and 71% of women support the ERA.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
BOXSCORE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Washington Post/ABC, Feb. 14-17; Emerson, Feb. 16-18; WSJ/NBC, Feb. 14-17; NPR/PBS, Feb. 13-16
SOUTH CAROLINA: UMass Lowell, Feb. 12-18
ARIZONA: HighGround Public Affairs, Feb. 7-9
FAVORABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES, ERA: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 16-18
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux