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Impeachment Update – Biden Tops California Primary, New National Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 23


Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating/


Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Trump losing close contests to all three Democrats, and by identical margins. These Emerson College poll results are a good bit more favorable for Trump than other recent national polls we’ve reported.


Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = The Hill/Emerson/CNN = Average
Joe Biden: 27%/27%/34% = 29.3
Elizabeth Warren: 19%/21%/19% = 19.7
Bernie Sanders: 14%/25%/16% = 18.3
Pete Buttigieg: 6%/6%/6% = 6
Kamala Harris: 5%/5%/6% = 5.3
Andrew Yang: 2%/4%/2% = 2.7
Beto O’Rourke: 3%/2%/3% = 2.7
Amy Klobuchar: 1%/1%/3% = 1.7
Cory Booker: 1%/3%/1% = 1.7
Tulsi Gabbard: -/3%/1% = 1.3
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: All three polls were conducted after the last debate. They all show Biden ahead, two have Warren in second place and one has her running third. There is a big difference on Sanders, with a 14% to 25% spread. The average puts Biden in front of the field with Warren and Sanders running close…. The Emerson poll shows Biden up 2 points, Sanders up 3 points and Warren down 3 points since their September poll––an indication that the last debate may have damaged Warren’s standing.


Among Democratic voters statewide

Joe Biden: 33%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Though a couple of previous polls had Warren ahead of Biden in California, this one gives Biden a clear 15-point lead, with Sanders a point behind. Biden beats Warren by 21 points among men, 10 points among women, 9 points among whites, 39 points among blacks and 14 points among Hispanics.


Among adults nationwide

Based on what you have read or heard, do you believe that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don’t you feel that way?

Should be removed from office: 50%
Don’t feel that way: 43%

RON’S COMMENT: Support for impeachment is up 3 points since CNN last asked the question at the end of September. Now, 87% of Democrats, 50% of independents and 6% of Republicans feel the President should be impeached and removed. Gender and race show wide differences: 40% of whites, 68% of non-whites, 56% of women and 44% of men favor impeachment/removal.

In your view, why do most Democrats in Congress support impeachment of Donald Trump? Is it…

Because they believe Trump committed impeachable offenses: 48%
Because they are out to get Donald Trump at all costs: 42%

In your view, why do most Republicans in Congress oppose impeachment of Donald Trump? Is it…

Because they are out to protect Donald Trump at all costs: 50%
Because they believe Trump did not commit impeachable offenses: 40%


Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Emerson College, Oct. 18-21
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Emerson College, Oct. 18-21; The Hill/HarrisX, Oct. 21-22
CALIFORNIA: SurveyUSA/KGTV, Oct. 15-16

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.