In the aftermath of a closer-than-anticipated general election, pollsters have received no shortage of criticism for "missing" the election's outcome. This criticism is well warranted. The day before the election, our Lunchtime Politics polling avera...
Many recent polls make questionable assumptions about the age of the electorate, often over-representing older voters. The result: polls are likely helping Trump’s performance in the polls and making the race tighter than it may actually be. ...
ICYMI: Check out Dr. Ron Faucheux's conversation with Susan Eisenhower of the Eisenhower Institute at Gettysburg College discussing our nation’s increased polarization, the 2020 election, and the uncertain impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on voting ...
Will Donald Trump be reelected? That question demands one of those complicated “on the one hand” and “on the other hand” answers that most people hate and pundits love. It’s why Harry Truman said he preferred one-armed economists — so the...
ICYMI: Check out Ron Faucheux's thoughts on who will be Joe Biden's running mate for the 2020 Presidential election. Who will be Joe Biden’s running mate? Given Biden’s age, voters will be tempted to view his vice-president as a future presid...
If anything comes out of the coronavirus crisis, it is the glaring need to tackle big, neglected issues. All five priorities are essential to our future. While none are perfect or easy to accomplish, combined, they can fix broken government, create j...
Politics is filled with truisms that aren’t true. Let’s look at some of them...“The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day" the Democratic presidential primary race show otherwise...“All politics are local" that hasn’t been the c...
Michael Bloomberg is not what Democrats want, but he may be what Democrats need. None of Bloomberg’s signature traits -- 77-years-old, former Republican, billionaire -- are on the presidential wish list of most Democrats. What they want is an appe...
About this time in every presidential nomination contest there is talk of a brokered convention. As if on cue, we’re hearing it again. The thought of such a convention races the hearts of political junkies everywhere. It conjures the image of ...
Electability is Joe Biden’s calling card. Without that perceived advantage, his viability as a presidential candidate crumbles...While electability can be a powerful force––it helped George W. Bush, John Kerry and John McCain win nominations–...
Modern communication campaigns require customizing communication strategies for different target audiences. Elite audiences, professionals engaged in key decision making or with high awareness of industry developments are important target audiences f...
As we know, polls of the national popular vote do not always reflect how Electoral College votes will break. In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points, but won a majority of the electoral vote. In 2000, George W. Bush lost the...
Electoral College Risk Window: As we know, polls of the national popular vote do not necessarily reflect how Electoral College votes will break. In 2016, Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points, but won a majority of the electoral vote. In 2000, George...
At Certus Insights, we are always advancing our capabilities to bring be best research methodologies to our clients. Below are a few capabilities that we have expanded and available for our clients....
ICYMI: Check out Ron Faucheux's thoughts on who will be Joe Biden's running mate for the 2020 Presidential election. Who will be Joe Biden’s running mate? Given Biden’s age, voters will be tempted to view his vice-president as a future president or a major contender...
Who will be Joe Biden’s running mate? Interestingly, two of the most popular possibilities for vice-president are off the list––Michelle Obama, who doesn’t want it, and Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York, who has been ruled out based on Biden’s pledge to select a...
Looking at state polls and other factors, this is my current electoral vote count in the race for president: Biden 280, Trump 258…. While it may change many times between now and November, it shows why Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania (three states Trump carried last...
Except for Kemp in Georgia, the 12 governors tested in this poll all score majority support in their home states for their handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Most score above 70%. DeWine in Ohio does best and Cuomo in New York is second. Whitmer, who...
These Monmouth poll numbers answer one crucial question––do voters even know about Tara Reade’s allegation? The answer is yes…. The Economist poll backs up this conclusion, it also shows that 86% have heard of the allegation What’s troubling for Biden is that 43% of the electorate...
What Democrats say about a VP pick (from CBS poll): 31% of Democrats say a “liberal/progressive” running mate would make it easier to beat Trump and 32% say it would make it harder. 42% of Democrats say a “moderate” running mate would make it easier...
Today's Lunchtime Politics newsletter has early Vice Presidential polls! Keep in mind that VP prospects who ran for president generally do better in polls because they have higher name recognition than those who have not run a national campaign. Elizabeth Warren leads among Democratic primary...