IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Among Democratic caucusgoers statewide

Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 16%
Joe Biden: 15%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Cory Booker: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This Iowa poll has gotten a good bit of coverage this weekend. It has four candidates in the top tier with Sanders running first. Let’s look at internal data for Iowa’s Democratic caucusgoers:

• 55% think the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus should be a candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump, while 40% think the winner should be a candidate who shares their positions on major issues.
• Healthcare is the top issue, picked by 68% as “extremely important” and Sanders leads on the issue.
• 79% of Biden’s supporters say the candidate’s political resume is a strength, while only 59% of Buttigieg’s supporters say so.
• 95% of Buttigieg’s supporters say the candidate’s physical health is a strength, while only 37% of Sanders’ supporters say so.
• 87% of Buttigieg’s supporters and 86% of Biden’s supporters say the candidate’s ability to lead the military is a strength, while only 61% of Sanders’ supporters and 58% of Warren’s supporters say so.
• Warren is 70%favorable/24% unfavorable.
• Buttigieg is 68% favorable/24% unfavorable.
• Sanders is 66% favorable/29% unfavorable.
• Biden is 62% favorable/33% unfavorable. Note Biden’s negative rating is highest.
• Among general election voters: 40% of Iowa voters think Trump should be removed from office while 48% say he should not be removed. Trump carried Iowa by more than 9 points in 2016.

AFRICAN AMERICANS: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among African Americans nationwide

Joe Biden: 48%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Michael Bloomberg: 4%
Cory Booker: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Pete Buttigieg: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This Washington Post-Ipsos poll confirms what we have been seeing in this newsletter for many months now: Biden leads the Democratic field by a big margin among African Americans…. On favorability: Biden is 69% favorable/13% unfavorable among blacks. Sanders is 63% favorable/15% unfavorable. Warren is 51% favorable/12% unfavorable…. Biden’s greatest strength is his ability to beat Trump…. Among general election voters, Biden beats Trump 82-4 among blacks…. 63% of blacks want to continue President Obama’s policies while 21% want more liberal policies and 13% want more conservative policies…. 66% support Medicare-for-All…. Based on these numbers, it’s little wonder that Booker, who worked hard trying to build a base among black Democrats, has decided to drop his bid for the nomination. He was never able to gain traction.

JOB CONCERNS

Among adults nationwide

How worried are you about losing your job?

Very worried: 8%
Somewhat worried: 23%
Not very worried: 69%

RON’S COMMENT: Concern over a job loss declines with age: 37% of 18 to 29-year-olds are worried about losing their job, compared to 26% of those 45 to 64. Race is also a factor: 28% of whites are worried, compared to 42% of African-Americans.

If you lost your job, how hard would it be for you to find a new job that paid as much as you are making now?

Very hard – I would probably have to take a pay cut: 23%
Somewhat hard – It might take a while before I found a job that paid as much: 34%
Not very hard: 30%
Not sure: 13%

RON’S COMMENT: Here, concern grows with age. Only 14% of those 18 to 29 say it would be very hard for them to find a new job that paid as much, compared to 23% of 30-44-year-olds, 27% of 45-64-year-olds, and 28% of those 65+. There are regional differences: 35% of the Northeast say it would very hard find equal pay in a new job, compared to 16% in the Midwest, 20% in the South and 25% in the West.

How happy would you say you are with your current job?

Very happy: 25%
Happy: 33%
Neither happy nor unhappy: 29%
Unhappy: 8%
Very unhappy: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: 20% of those in the Northeast say they unhappy or very unhappy about their job, much higher than those who are unhappy in other regions.

RATING NFL PLAYERS

Among adults nationwide

Best known(nationwide name awareness, 50% or higher):
Tom Brady (Patriots): 86%
Eli Manning (Giants): 81%
Drew Brees (Saints): 67%
Aaron Rodgers (Packers): 62%
Odell Beckham (Browns): 57%
Lamar Jackson (Ravens): 54%
Russell Wilson (Seahawks): 52%
Matt Ryan (Falcons): 52%
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): 50%
Adrian Peterson (Redskins): 50%

Popularity(% = Favorable/Unfavorable)
Eli Manning (Giants): 51%/9%
Drew Brees (Saints): 47%/5%
Tom Brady (Patriots): 39%/27%
Aaron Rodgers (Packers): 34%/11%
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): 30%/3%
Russell Wilson (Seahawks): 31%/5%
Lamar Jackson (Ravens): 27%/5%
Adrian Peterson (Redskins): 25%/9%
Matt Ryan (Falcons): 25%/6%
Odell Beckham (Browns): 23%/13%

RON’S COMMENT: Brady, Manning and Brees are the three best known of the players tested and Manning and Brees have the highest favorable ratings. Brees and Manning also have the best net favorability ratings at +42. Brady has the highest unfavorable rating and his net favorability is +12.

SPORTS FANS

Among adults nationwide

In general, would you describe yourself as an avid sports fan, a casual sports fan or not a fan at all? 

Avid sports fan: 22%
Casual sports fan: 49%
Not a fan at all: 29%

RON’S COMMENT: More men than women are avid sports fans (34% vs. 11%). Democrats and Republicans are identical, each have 23% avid fans. The demographic with the highest percentage of avid fans is Democratic men (38%). Also, 34% of Republican men are avid fans.

Generally, would you say you prefer college sports or professional sports? 

Professional sports: 49%
College sports: 18%
Neither: 23%

RON’S COMMENT: Men prefer pro sports over college 56-20. For women, it’s 43-16.

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