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Candidate Positioning – Democrats for 2024? – Iowa, New Hampshire

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, January 6

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 47%

Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: This is the highest rating President Trump has received in our averages. Note that only one of the three polls used today partially reflects reactions to the Iran action…. Today’s average is based on poll results ranging from 44% (The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). The third poll had it at 47%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Friday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES

Among Democratic primary voters and caucus goers in each state

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state

Iowa Caucus
Joe Biden: 23%
Pete Buttigieg: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Amy Klobuchar: 7%
Cory Booker: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden is back in the game in Iowa, tying Sanders and Buttigieg for first place in this new survey. The poll also finds only 31% of voters say they’ve definitely made up their minds­­––which means two-thirds of the electorate could still shift…. Safe or exciting? 41% say Buttigieg is exciting, 39% say Sanders is exciting, 30% say Warren is exciting and 14% say Biden is exciting. However, 24% say Buttigieg is safe, 20% say Sanders is safe, 22% say Warren is safe and––look at this––53% say Biden is safe. If “safe” is what Iowa Democrats want, Biden wins.

New Hampshire Primary
Bernie Sanders: 27%
Joe Biden: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Amy Klobuchar: 7%
Cory Booker: 3%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Sanders and Biden are fighting for first place in New Hampshire, with Warren third and Buttigieg fourth.

CANDIDATE POSITIONING

Among voters nationwide

Which candidate are you more likely to vote for? 

  • A presidential candidate who stands for the green new deal on climate change, Medicare for all, free college tuition, opening our borders to many more immigrants and raising taxes to pay for these programs: 39%
  • A presidential candidate who stands for lower taxes and reduced government regulations, strengthening our military, strengthening our border to reduce illegal immigrants, standing up more to China and Iran and seeking better trade deals for the US: 61%

RON’S COMMENT: These results show that general election voters prefer by a wide 22-point margin a candidate with the Trump-Republican approach on issues over the progressive-left issue approach (positioned similarly to Sanders and Warren). Partisans will bicker about how these descriptions are worded.

Which candidate are you more likely to vote for? 

  • A presidential candidate who stands for keeping in place Obamacare but expanding coverage under it, taxing carbon emissions and developing new technologies as part of the effort to fight climate change, raising the federal minimum wage to $15/hour, increasing the capital gains tax and moderate tax raises on corporations and upper- income Americans, fixing and expanding existing student debt relief programs: 51%
  • A presidential candidate who stands for lower taxes and reduced government regulations, strengthening our military, strengthening our border to reduce illegal immigrants, standing up more to China and Iran and seeking better trade deals for the US: 49%

RON’S COMMENT: This question shows that a center-left candidate on issues (positioned similarly to Biden, Buttigieg or Klobuchar) would lead by a 2-point margin over a candidate with the Trump-Republican approach on issues in the general election.

NATIONAL: 2024 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Pete Buttigieg: 30%
Kamala Harris: 26%
Cory Booker: 24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 20%
Oprah Winfrey: 20%
Stacey Abrams: 18%
Amy Klobuchar: 18%
Joe Kennedy: 14%
Gavin Newsom: 10%
Michael Bennet: 7%
Rahm Emanuel: 5%
Terry McAuliffe: 5%
Steve Bullock: 4%
Roy Cooper: 4%
Lori Lightfoot: 4%
Gretchen Whitmer: 3%
Mitch Landrieu: 3%
Brian Schatz: 3%
Gina Raimondo: 2%
Others: 19%

RON’S COMMENT: At the risk of getting way ahead of ourselves, here’s a national poll of Democrats showing who they would consider in the 2024 race for the party’s presidential nomination. As you can see, Buttigieg runs first, Harris is second and Booker is third. AOC and Winfrey tie at 20%…. Warning label: This data is presented for entertainment value only. A lot will happen between now and 2024.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE: CBS/YouGov, Dec. 27-Jan. 3
2020 DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, CANDIDATE POSITIONING: Harvard-Harris, Dec. 27-29
2024 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION: Axios/Survey Monkey, Dec. 14-17

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.