PRESIDENT: 2020

Among voters in each state

Wisconsin
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +5 (46-41)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +4 (46-42)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +2 (44-42)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +1 (42-41)

RON’S COMMENT: Trump barely won Wisconsin in 2016, and it was a critical piece of his Electoral vote coalition. Currently, he’s behind these four Democrats, with Biden and Sanders doing best. No longer will Democrats take this state for granted in a presidential election. This year, they will go after Wisconsin with everything they have, just as Republicans will defend it with everything they have.

Nevada
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +8 (47-39)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +5 (46-41)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +1 (43-42)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +1 (41-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Hillary Clinton won Nevada by about 2 points in 2016. Democrats continue to lead, with Biden doing best. Republicans have targeted Nevada for a blue-to-red turnaround. Democrats carried the state in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections.

Georgia
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +7 (51-44)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +9 (52-43)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sanders: +10 (52-42)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +14 (54-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Georgia by 5 points in 2016 and Democrats are targeting it as a swing state for 2020, but this poll shows it still may be out of reach for them…. Biden wins women by 4 points and Trump wins men by 19 points. Trump carries whites 72-24 and Biden carries blacks 85-7.

Iowa
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +1 (48-47)
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +3 (49-46)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +5 (49-44)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sanders: +5 (49-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Iowa by more than 9 points in 2016. In this poll, he’s leading but by smaller margins. Buttigieg does best among Democrats.

Arizona
Donald Trump and Joe Biden: even (46-46)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sanders: +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +2 (47-45)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +3 (47-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Arizona by almost 4 points in 2016. In this poll, he ties Biden but edges the others. Democrats are going all out to turn this formerly red state blue, and this poll shows the race is now competitive. Republicans have carried the Arizona in 11 out of the last 12 presidential elections.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES

Among Democratic voters in each state

New Hampshire Primary
Pete Buttigieg: 20%
Joe Biden: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Michael Bennet: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: We have a three-way race in New Hampshire with Buttigieg, Biden and Sanders battling it out for the top prize. Warren is within striking distance if she has the juice to make a comeback. Since September in this poll, Buttigieg is up 10 points, Sanders is up 6 points, Warren is down 12 points and Biden is down 6 points. The primary is Feb. 11.

Nevada Caucus
Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Tom Steyer: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden runs first in Nevada, an early caucus that gets national media attention. Since November in this poll, Biden has lost 1 point, Sanders has lost 1 point, Steyer is up 7 points and Warren is down 6 points. Whites prefer Biden (22%) over Warren (14%), Sanders (13%) and Steyer (11%). Among Hispanics, it’s Biden (24%), Sanders (24%), Steyer (12%) and Warren (11%). The caucus is Feb. 22.

South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 36%
Tom Steyer: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds the lead in this critical firewall state. Surprisingly, Steyer is now running second. Since October in this poll, Biden is down 5, Steyer is up 11, Sanders is up 4 and Warren is down 2…. Among African Americans: Biden is first (43%), Steyer is second (16%) and Sanders is third (12%). Among white voters, it’s Biden (22%), Sanders (17%), Warren (16%), Steyer (12%) and Buttigieg (9%). The primary is Feb. 29.

Wisconsin Primary
Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Michael Bloomberg: 7%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Sanders are vying for first place in Wisconsin. Since October in this poll, Biden is down 5, Sanders is up 4, Warren is down 9, Buttigieg is up 2 and Klobuchar is up 2. Wisconsin’s primary often turns out to be important. This one will be held April 7.

FOREIGN CONFLICTS

Among voters nationwide

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 

The U.S. is engaged in too many foreign conflicts.
Agree: 69%
Disagree: 20%

The U.S. needs to be involved in foreign conflicts to support our allies, fight terrorism and maintain our foreign policy interests.
Agree: 62%
Disagree: 26%

RON’S COMMENT: Americans hold seemingly contradictory opinions on foreign involvement––while there is strong conceptual agreement that the U.S. is engaged in too many foreign conflicts, when the question is made more specific, there is solid majority agreement that the U.S. needs to be involved to support allies, fight terrorism and maintain its interests.

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