10 Jan Foreign Conflict – Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa
Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, January 10
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Politico) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: Trump barely won Wisconsin in 2016, and it was a critical piece of his Electoral vote coalition. Currently, he’s behind these four Democrats, with Biden and Sanders doing best. No longer will Democrats take this state for granted in a presidential election. This year, they will go after Wisconsin with everything they have, just as Republicans will defend it with everything they have.
RON’S COMMENT: Hillary Clinton won Nevada by about 2 points in 2016. Democrats continue to lead, with Biden doing best. Republicans have targeted Nevada for a blue-to-red turnaround. Democrats carried the state in 5 of the last 7 presidential elections.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Georgia by 5 points in 2016 and Democrats are targeting it as a swing state for 2020, but this poll shows it still may be out of reach for them…. Biden wins women by 4 points and Trump wins men by 19 points. Trump carries whites 72-24 and Biden carries blacks 85-7.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Iowa by more than 9 points in 2016. In this poll, he’s leading but by smaller margins. Buttigieg does best among Democrats.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Arizona by almost 4 points in 2016. In this poll, he ties Biden but edges the others. Democrats are going all out to turn this formerly red state blue, and this poll shows the race is now competitive. Republicans have carried the Arizona in 11 out of the last 12 presidential elections.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
New Hampshire Primary
RON’S COMMENT: We have a three-way race in New Hampshire with Buttigieg, Biden and Sanders battling it out for the top prize. Warren is within striking distance if she has the juice to make a comeback. Since September in this poll, Buttigieg is up 10 points, Sanders is up 6 points, Warren is down 12 points and Biden is down 6 points. The primary is Feb. 11.
RON’S COMMENT: Biden runs first in Nevada, an early caucus that gets national media attention. Since November in this poll, Biden has lost 1 point, Sanders has lost 1 point, Steyer is up 7 points and Warren is down 6 points. Whites prefer Biden (22%) over Warren (14%), Sanders (13%) and Steyer (11%). Among Hispanics, it’s Biden (24%), Sanders (24%), Steyer (12%) and Warren (11%). The caucus is Feb. 22.
South Carolina Primary
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds the lead in this critical firewall state. Surprisingly, Steyer is now running second. Since October in this poll, Biden is down 5, Steyer is up 11, Sanders is up 4 and Warren is down 2…. Among African Americans: Biden is first (43%), Steyer is second (16%) and Sanders is third (12%). Among white voters, it’s Biden (22%), Sanders (17%), Warren (16%), Steyer (12%) and Buttigieg (9%). The primary is Feb. 29.
RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Sanders are vying for first place in Wisconsin. Since October in this poll, Biden is down 5, Sanders is up 4, Warren is down 9, Buttigieg is up 2 and Klobuchar is up 2. Wisconsin’s primary often turns out to be important. This one will be held April 7.
Among voters nationwide
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
The U.S. is engaged in too many foreign conflicts.
The U.S. needs to be involved in foreign conflicts to support our allies, fight terrorism and maintain our foreign policy interests.
RON’S COMMENT: Americans hold seemingly contradictory opinions on foreign involvement––while there is strong conceptual agreement that the U.S. is engaged in too many foreign conflicts, when the question is made more specific, there is solid majority agreement that the U.S. needs to be involved to support allies, fight terrorism and maintain its interests.
NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Monmouth Univ., Jan. 3-7
IOWA, ARIZONA: PPP (D), Jan. 2-4
GEORGIA: Mason Dixon, Dec. 19-23
NEVADA, SOUTH CAROLINA, WISCONSIN: Fox News, Jan. 5-8
FOREIGN CONFLICTS: Politico/Morning Consult, Jan. 4-5, 2020
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at email@example.com.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux