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USMCA – Impeachment Update – Iowa, New Hampshire

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, December 11


Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+2 from yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = Quinnipiac/Monmouth/The Economist = Average
Joe Biden: 29% / 26% / 26% = 27
Bernie Sanders: 17% / 21% / 16% = 18
Elizabeth Warren: 15% / 17% / 21% = 17.7
Pete Buttigieg: 9% / 8% / 11% = 9.3
Michael Bloomberg: 5% / 5% / 4% = 4.7
Andrew Yang: 4% / 3% / 3% =3.3
Amy Klobuchar: 3% / 4% / 2% = 3
Cory Booker: 1% / 2% / 3% = 2
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% / – / 3% = 1.7
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Tracking movement for the top candidates––

  • The Economist poll since a week ago: Biden -1, Sanders +3, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1
  • The Quinnipiac poll since two weeks ago: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +1, Buttigieg -7
  • The Monmouth poll since a month ago: Biden +3, Sanders +1, Warren -6, Buttigieg -1


Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide

Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Pete Buttigieg: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Amy Klobuchar: 10%
Cory Booker: 4%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This Emerson College poll shows Biden has made a comeback in Iowa since his “No Malarkey” bus tour. Two previous polls had him third or fourth. Sanders is second in this poll and Buttigieg third. Klobuchar is breathing down Warren’s neck…. Interestingly, Sanders beats Warren among Iowa’s most liberal Democrats by a wide 49-16 margin. Among moderate Democrats, Biden leads, Buttigieg is second and Klobuchar is third…. The poll report says that “Mayor Pete might be in better shape than his 18% because nearly 1 in 3 voters who are initially supporting a less viable candidate breaks towards Pete as their second option.”


Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Pete Buttigieg: 18%
Joe Biden: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 5%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This latest New Hampshire poll finds a tight race at the top between Buttigieg, Biden and Sanders, with Warren not far behind…. Based on the average of the three most recent polls, it’s Sanders 19, Buttigieg 18, Biden 14 and Warren 13.


Among voters nationwide

Do you think the U.S. House of Representatives should or should not impeach Donald Trump? 

Should impeach: 48%
Should not impeach: 44%

If the U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach Donald Trump, do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not remove him from office? 

Should remove from office: 44%
Should not remove from office: 40%

RON’S COMMENT: Support for both impeachment and removal falls short of a majority of voters which, despite pluralities in favor, makes this a tricky issue for Democrats…. Democrats also have no momentum on the issue: A month ago in this same poll, 49% favored impeachment and 49% favored removal…. The divide remains highly partisan: 84% of Democrats, 38% of independents and 9% of Republicans favor impeachment. 83% of Democrats, 36% of independents and 11% of Republicans favor removal.


Among voters nationwide

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)? 

Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 17%
Don’t know: 33%

RON’S COMMENT: 36% of Democrats, 37% of independents and 59% of Republicans have a favorable view of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.


Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 7-10; Quinnipiac, Dec. 4-9; Monmouth, Dec. 4-8
IOWA: Emerson, Dec. 7-10
IMPEACHMENT & REMOVAL, USMCA: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 7-10

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.