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Talking Politics – Favorability – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona Primaries

Your Daily Polling Update Monday, November 11


Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.


Among Democratic primary voters in each state

North Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Only three candidates poll 2% or higher in this state and 57% of Democrats in the state pick one of these three candidates. The primary is March 3, Super Tuesday.

Michigan Primary
Joe Biden: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The primary is March 10.

Arizona Primary
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The primary is March 17.

Florida Primary
Joe Biden: 27%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds an 8-point lead over Warren in Florida, a large state with plenty of delegates. The primary is March 17.

Wisconsin Primary
Elizabeth Warren: 25%
Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This looks like it could be a three-way battle, but there is a lot to happen between now and primary day, April 7.

Pennsylvania Primary
Joe Biden: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden was born in Scranton and he remains the favorite in the Pennsylvania primary. Unfortunately for him, the primary is late, April 28.


Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Donald Trump: 44% / 55%
Mike Pence: 43% / 49%
Nancy Pelosi: 42% / 51%
Chuck Schumer: 35% / 48%
Kevin McCarthy: 25% / 36%
Mitch McConnell: 29% / 55%

RON’S COMMENT: While these national leaders are generally popular among their party’s voters and very unpopular among the opposing party’s voters, let’s look at how they’re doing among independents, who are most likely to be swing voters in the next election: Trump 35%/53%, Pence 32%/44%, Pelosi 28%/48%, Schumer 19%/44%, McCarthy 15%/33% and McConnell 20%/45%. As you can see, they’re all highly net negative among independents.


Among voters nationwide

Compared to five years ago, would you say you now talk about politics with others…

More often than I used to: 47%
About the same amount: 33%
Less often than I used to: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: Nearly half of Americans say they’re talking politics more these days––which is a lot more than the 18% who say they’re talking less politics. While 58% of Democrats say they’re talking more politics, 48% of Republicans and 26% of independents do.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: The Economist/You Gov, Nov. 3-5
TALKING POLITICS: Survey Monkey for Axios on HBO, Oct. 17-20

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.