12 Dec New Biden Ad – British Election – Impeachment – Iowa, California, Texas
Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, December 12
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
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Among voters statewide
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +1 (46-45)
RON’S COMMENT: While Trump beats all Democrats in Iowa, his margin over Buttigieg is smallest––more evidence that Buttigieg is deepening his base in the Midwest…. Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa in 2016 by more than 9 points. Democrats have won the state in 6 of the last 10 elections. Iowa has 6 Electoral votes and is a “must win” for Trump next year.
Among Democratic primary voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Sanders are nearly tied at the top in California. Warren is fairly close. This is a ‘must win” state for Bloomberg, who is now in sixth place at 5%. Worth noting: 52% of California Democrats say they “might change” their minds on the candidate they pick between now and the March 3 primary…. On issues, Biden wins the economy. Sanders wins healthcare and climate. They’re close on immigration and gun policy.
RON’S COMMENT: This is the best Biden has done in Texas all year. Texas is an important state for Bloomberg, who is targeting large states with expensive media markets. Castro still hasn’t shown any movement in his home state.
MUST SEE CAMPAIGN AD
The Biden campaign is currently running this ad, contrasting the former VP against President Trump on global statesmanship. Click here to see it.
Among adults nationwide
Trust for House process: How much trust do you have in the way the House impeachment inquiry has been conducted so far – a lot, a little, or none at all?
A lot: 26%
RON’S COMMENT: 6% of Republicans, 21% of independents and 50% of Democrats have “a lot” of trust in the way the House impeachment inquiry has been conducted so far.
Impeachment/Removal: Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency, or not?
Yes, should: 45%
RON’S COMMENT: This Monmouth poll finds that 11% of Republicans, 36% of independents and 87% of Democrats think Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency.
Trump’s actions assessed: Which of the following comes closest to how you feel about impeachment: A. Trump has not done anything wrong at all; B. Some of Trump’s actions may have been improper, but they do not rise to the level of impeachment; C. Trump’s actions should be looked into as possible impeachable offenses; or D. Trump’s actions are clearly grounds for impeachment?
New information to come: In general, do you think there is any new information that could ever come out about President Trump that would significantly change public opinion of him, or do you think people are set in their opinions regardless of what new information may come out?
New information that could ever come out that would significantly change public opinion: 24%
Do you think the Democrats in Congress are more interested in pursuing the facts wherever they might lead or more interested in finding ways to bring down President Trump?
Pursuing the facts: 33%
Do you think the Republicans in Congress are more interested in pursuing the facts wherever they might lead or more interested in finding ways to bring down President Trump?
Pursuing the facts: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: 27% of independents say Democrats are pursuing the facts and the same 27% of independents say Republicans are pursuing the facts.
BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION: 2019
Among voters in Great Britain
Political Party Preference:
RON’S COMMENT: Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party leads the final polls in today’s election. The big question is whether the Tories win a clear Parliamentary majority, which most analysts think they will.
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Emerson College, Dec. 7-10
CALIFORNIA, TEXAS: CNN, Dec. 4-8
IMPEACHMENT: Monmouth Univ., Dec. 4-8
BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION: Survation, Panelbase, Opinium, Dec. 10-11
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux