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New Biden Ad – British Election – Impeachment – Iowa, California, Texas

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, December 12

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.

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IOWA: PRESIDENT

Among voters statewide

Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +1 (46-45)
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +4 (49-45)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +7 (50-43)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sander: +7 (50-43)

RON’S COMMENT:  While Trump beats all Democrats in Iowa, his margin over Buttigieg is smallest––more evidence that Buttigieg is deepening his base in the Midwest…. Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa in 2016 by more than 9 points. Democrats have won the state in 6 of the last 10 elections. Iowa has 6 Electoral votes and is a “must win” for Trump next year.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

Among Democratic primary voters in each state

California Primary
Joe Biden: 21%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Andrew Yang: 6%
Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Cory Booker: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Sanders are nearly tied at the top in California. Warren is fairly close. This is a ‘must win” state for Bloomberg, who is now in sixth place at 5%. Worth noting: 52% of California Democrats say they “might change” their minds on the candidate they pick between now and the March 3 primary…. On issues, Biden wins the economy. Sanders wins healthcare and climate. They’re close on immigration and gun policy.

Texas Primary
Joe Biden: 35%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Julian Castro: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This is the best Biden has done in Texas all year. Texas is an important state for Bloomberg, who is targeting large states with expensive media markets. Castro still hasn’t shown any movement in his home state.

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Joe Biden

The Biden campaign is currently running this ad, contrasting the former VP against President Trump on global statesmanship. Click here to see it.

IMPEACHMENT

Among adults nationwide

Trust for House process: How much trust do you have in the way the House impeachment inquiry has been conducted so far – a lot, a little, or none at all?

A lot: 26%
A little: 27%
None at all: 44%

RON’S COMMENT: 6% of Republicans, 21% of independents and 50% of Democrats have “a lot” of trust in the way the House impeachment inquiry has been conducted so far.

Impeachment/Removal: Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency, or not?

Yes, should: 45%
No, should not: 50%

RON’S COMMENT: This Monmouth poll finds that 11% of Republicans, 36% of independents and 87% of Democrats think Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency.

Trump’s actions assessed: Which of the following comes closest to how you feel about impeachment: A. Trump has not done anything wrong at all; B. Some of Trump’s actions may have been improper, but they do not rise to the level of impeachment; C. Trump’s actions should be looked into as possible impeachable offenses; or D. Trump’s actions are clearly grounds for impeachment?

  1. Trump has not done anything wrong at all: 16%
  2. Some of Trump’s actions may have been improper, but they do not rise to the level of impeachment: 30%
  3. Trump’s actions should be looked into as possible impeachable offenses: 15%
  4. Trump’s actions are clearly grounds for impeachment: 38%

New information to come: In general, do you think there is any new information that could ever come out about President Trump that would significantly change public opinion of him, or do you think people are set in their opinions regardless of what new information may come out?

New information that could ever come out that would significantly change public opinion: 24%
People are set in their opinions: 71%

Partisan motivations:

Do you think the Democrats in Congress are more interested in pursuing the facts wherever they might lead or more interested in finding ways to bring down President Trump?

Pursuing the facts: 33%
Bringing down Trump: 59%

Do you think the Republicans in Congress are more interested in pursuing the facts wherever they might lead or more interested in finding ways to bring down President Trump?

Pursuing the facts: 29%
Defending Trump: 61%

RON’S COMMENT: 27% of independents say Democrats are pursuing the facts and the same 27% of independents say Republicans are pursuing the facts.

BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION: 2019

Among voters in Great Britain

Political Party Preference: 
% = Average of last three polls
Conservative: 44.3%
Labour: 33.7%
Lib Dems: 10.7%
SNP: 4%
Brexit: 3%
Green: 2.7%

RON’S COMMENT: Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party leads the final polls in today’s election. The big question is whether the Tories win a clear Parliamentary majority, which most analysts think they will.

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Sources

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Emerson College, Dec. 7-10
CALIFORNIA, TEXAS: CNN, Dec. 4-8
IMPEACHMENT: Monmouth Univ., Dec. 4-8
BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION: Survation, Panelbase, Opinium, Dec. 10-11

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.