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New Hampshire Observations, Exit Poll Data – Arkansas Primary

Your Daily Polling Update FOR Wednesday, February 12

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Politico, Quinnipiac) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

NEW HAMPSHIRE OBSERVATIONS

By Ron Faucheux

  • Three candidates won New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders, because he got the most votes; Pete Buttigieg, because he came close in a state that Sanders won with 60% four years ago; and Amy Klobuchar, because she had a last-minute surge.
  • Two candidates lost New Hampshire: Joe Biden, because frontrunners don’t run fifth; and Elizabeth Warren, because running a weak fourth is an embarrassment in a neighboring state that shares your home state’s media market.
  • The winner who wasn’t there was Michael Bloomberg. The more fractured the field, the better it is for him.
  • Half the voters in New Hampshire say they decided in the last few days. This is another indication that many Democrats remain unsure until the moment they’re forced to make a choice.
  • Sanders won men (31%) with Buttigieg second (22%). Buttigieg won women (26%) with Klobuchar second (23%).
  • Sanders handily won voters 18-29 years old (51%) and Buttigieg came in second (20%). Klobuchar won voters 65 and older (32%) and Buttigieg came in second (24%).
  • Klobuchar won college graduates (25%) with Buttigieg and Sanders coming in second (23% each). Sanders won voters without a college degree (30%) with Buttigieg second (25%).
  • Sanders won the most liberal voters (48%), Warren was second (19%) and Buttigieg was third (15%). Buttigieg won moderates (28%) with Klobuchar second (26%). Biden, who formerly had a hold on moderates, came in fourth at 12%. Warren received only 3% of moderates.
  • Sanders easily won voters with incomes below $50k (38%) and Buttigieg ran second a distant (17%). Buttigieg won voters with incomes above $100k (34%) with Klobuchar second (20%).
  • Sanders won union voters (30%) with Buttigieg second (22%). Biden, a longtime labor ally, came in third (17%).
  • Klobuchar won voters who attend religious services at least once a week (28%) with Buttigieg second (16%). Sanders won voters who never attend religious services (34%) and Buttigieg was second (22%).

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = Monmouth/The Economist/The Hill = Average
Bernie Sanders: 26%/22%/20% = 22.7
Joe Biden: 16%/18%/23% = 19
Michael Bloomberg: 11%/12%/16% = 13
Elizabeth Warren: 13%/15%/9% = 12.3
Pete Buttigieg: 13%/10%/9% = 10.7
Amy Klobuchar: 6%/7%/3% = 5.3
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%/4%/1% = 2
Tom Steyer: 1%/1%/3% = 1.7
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The race is in transition. Biden has lost his national polling perch to Sanders. Bloomberg has moved into third place, slightly overtaking Warren. While all three polls were conducted after Iowa and before the New Hampshire results were in, The Economist’s numbers are most recent.

ARKANSAS: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Michael Bloomberg: 20%
Joe Biden: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This is the first state poll we’ve seen with Bloomberg running on top, and it’s Arkansas. The primary is March 3 with 31 delegates at stake.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 9-11; The Hill/HarrisX, Feb. 7-10; Monmouth, Feb. 6-9
ARKANSAS: Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix, Feb. 6-7

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.