NEW HAMPSHIRE OBSERVATIONS

By Ron Faucheux

• Three candidates won New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders, because he got the most votes; Pete Buttigieg, because he came close in a state that Sanders won with 60% four years ago; and Amy Klobuchar, because she had a last-minute surge.
• Two candidates lost New Hampshire: Joe Biden, because frontrunners don’t run fifth; and Elizabeth Warren, because running a weak fourth is an embarrassment in a neighboring state that shares your home state’s media market.
• The winner who wasn’t there was Michael Bloomberg. The more fractured the field, the better it is for him.
• Half the voters in New Hampshire say they decided in the last few days. This is another indication that many Democrats remain unsure until the moment they’re forced to make a choice.
• Sanders won men (31%) with Buttigieg second (22%). Buttigieg won women (26%) with Klobuchar second (23%).
• Sanders handily won voters 18-29 years old (51%) and Buttigieg came in second (20%). Klobuchar won voters 65 and older (32%) and Buttigieg came in second (24%).
• Klobuchar won college graduates (25%) with Buttigieg and Sanders coming in second (23% each). Sanders won voters without a college degree (30%) with Buttigieg second (25%).
• Sanders won the most liberal voters (48%), Warren was second (19%) and Buttigieg was third (15%). Buttigieg won moderates (28%) with Klobuchar second (26%). Biden, who formerly had a hold on moderates, came in fourth at 12%. Warren received only 3% of moderates.
• Sanders easily won voters with incomes below $50k (38%) and Buttigieg ran second a distant (17%). Buttigieg won voters with incomes above $100k (34%) with Klobuchar second (20%).
• Sanders won union voters (30%) with Buttigieg second (22%). Biden, a longtime labor ally, came in third (17%).
• Klobuchar won voters who attend religious services at least once a week (28%) with Buttigieg second (16%). Sanders won voters who never attend religious services (34%) and Buttigieg was second (22%).

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = Monmouth/The Economist/The Hill = Average
Bernie Sanders: 26%/22%/20% = 22.7
Joe Biden: 16%/18%/23% = 19
Michael Bloomberg: 11%/12%/16% = 13
Elizabeth Warren: 13%/15%/9% = 12.3
Pete Buttigieg: 13%/10%/9% = 10.7
Amy Klobuchar: 6%/7%/3% = 5.3
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%/4%/1% = 2
Tom Steyer: 1%/1%/3% = 1.7
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The race is in transition. Biden has lost his national polling perch to Sanders. Bloomberg has moved into third place, slightly overtaking Warren. While all three polls were conducted after Iowa and before the New Hampshire results were in, The Economist’s numbers are most recent.

ARKANSAS: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Michael Bloomberg: 20%
Joe Biden: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This is the first state poll we’ve seen with Bloomberg running on top, and it’s Arkansas. The primary is March 3 with 31 delegates at stake.