13 Dec Are Bloomberg’s Ads Helping? – Wisconsin, Texas, South Carolina – Trump vs. Generic Democrat
Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, December 13
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating
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Among voters in each states
RON’S COMMENT: Wisconsin was a crucial state for Trump in 2016, he won it by a thin margin. This poll shows it’s still close with Trump edging four candidates and losing only to Biden by a slight margin. Democrats carried Wisconsin in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump is beating three Democrats by 7 points in Texas, but posts only a 1-point lead over Biden. Polls like this give Biden the sheen of electability….In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9 points…. Republicans have carried Texas in 10 of the last 10 presidential elections….Lone Star Trivia: Two of the 38 presidential electors Trump won from Texas in 2016 didn’t vote for him in the Electoral College, they instead voted for Ron Paul and John Kasich.
SOUTH CAROLINA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 27%
RON’S COMMENT: Uh oh. The three previous South Carolina surveys showed Biden with an average 22-point lead over the second-place finisher. This one has his lead down to 7 points in this critical firewall state. Is this a real shift or just a polling outlier? As always, we have to wait and see…. The poll has Sanders rising 7 points since October and Warren holding steady…. Biden continues to do best with the state’s large African American constituency, capturing 37% percent.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 47% (-1 since last week)
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 6 points, same as last week.
NEW CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY
Among Democrats nationwide
RON’S COMMENT: After he’s spent $100 million on ads targeting Democrats, Bloomberg still rates slightly net negative. Last week, he rated 36% favorable/37% unfavorable. Since then, his favorability rating slipped a point and his unfavorable number didn’t budge…. During the same time, Patrick improved his position, moving his favorable rating up 2 points and lowering his unfavorable rating 3 points. And, he did it without spending $100 million on ads…. In fairness, Bloomberg’s ad spending still needs time to sink in.
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
WISCONSIN: Marquette, Dec. 3-8
TEXAS: CNN, Dec. 4-8
SOUTH CAROLINA: Post and Courier/Change Research, Dec. 6-11
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 7-10
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux