13 Dec Are Bloomberg’s Ads Helping? – Wisconsin, Texas, South Carolina – Trump vs. Generic Democrat
Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, December 13
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating
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PRESIDENTAmong voters in each statesWISCONSIN RON’S COMMENT: Wisconsin was a crucial state for Trump in 2016, he won it by a thin margin. This poll shows it’s still close with Trump edging four candidates and losing only to Biden by a slight margin. Democrats carried Wisconsin in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections. TEXAS RON’S COMMENT: Trump is beating three Democrats by 7 points in Texas, but posts only a 1-point lead over Biden. Polls like this give Biden the sheen of electability….In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9 points…. Republicans have carried Texas in 10 of the last 10 presidential elections….Lone Star Trivia: Two of the 38 presidential electors Trump won from Texas in 2016 didn’t vote for him in the Electoral College, they instead voted for Ron Paul and John Kasich. |
SOUTH CAROLINA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARYAmong Democratic primary voters statewideJoe Biden: 27% RON’S COMMENT: Uh oh. The three previous South Carolina surveys showed Biden with an average 22-point lead over the second-place finisher. This one has his lead down to 7 points in this critical firewall state. Is this a real shift or just a polling outlier? As always, we have to wait and see…. The poll has Sanders rising 7 points since October and Warren holding steady…. Biden continues to do best with the state’s large African American constituency, capturing 37% percent. |
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRATAmong voters nationwideIf the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? Democratic candidate: 47% (-1 since last week) RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 6 points, same as last week. |
NEW CANDIDATE FAVORABILITYAmong Democrats nationwideAmong Democrats: RON’S COMMENT: After he’s spent $100 million on ads targeting Democrats, Bloomberg still rates slightly net negative. Last week, he rated 36% favorable/37% unfavorable. Since then, his favorability rating slipped a point and his unfavorable number didn’t budge…. During the same time, Patrick improved his position, moving his favorable rating up 2 points and lowering his unfavorable rating 3 points. And, he did it without spending $100 million on ads…. In fairness, Bloomberg’s ad spending still needs time to sink in. NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so. |
Sources
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
WISCONSIN: Marquette, Dec. 3-8
TEXAS: CNN, Dec. 4-8
SOUTH CAROLINA: Post and Courier/Change Research, Dec. 6-11
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 7-10
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux
