14 Feb National Poll Has Sanders First, Biden, Bloomberg Close – Georgia, Florida – Eliminate Caucuses, Iowa – New Hampshire Look Back
Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, February 14
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
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NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Bernie Sanders: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: This national Morning Consult poll was conducted Wednesday, so it reflects initial reactions to the New Hampshire primary. Key findings:
Among Democratic voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: Bloomberg now edges Biden in Florida. Buttigieg, Sanders and Klobuchar are vying for a distant third place. Warren is out of the picture. This poll was conducted after the New Hampshire primary…. To illustrate the recent shifts, a Florida poll taken in mid-January had Biden leading Bloomberg 42-7…. Florida votes March 17 and has 219 delegates. This could become a decisive battleground.
RON’S COMMENT: Despite a terrible two weeks in Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden holds a big lead in Georgia. He’s getting 41% of African Americans…. This survey was taken the day after the New Hampshire primary. Georgia votes March 24 and has 105 delegates.
ELIMINATE CAUCUSES, IOWA FIRST
Among Democrats nationwide
[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
The Democratic Party should eliminate caucuses as part of the nomination process
Iowa should hold the Democratic Party’s first nominating contest
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats across the nation favor eliminating caucuses (48-20) and don’t think Iowa should vote first anymore (32-26).
HOW DID NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS DO?
Comparison of final polling average with actual votes cast
Let’s compare the final polling average to the first alignment popular votes cast in the Feb. 11 New Hampshire primary:
AVERAGE OF FINAL THREE POLLS – NEW HAMPSHIRE
ACTUAL VOTES CAST – NEW HAMPSHIRE
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the final three Iowa polls (Boston Globe. WHDH, CNN) came within 3 points of the actual results for Sanders, Warren, Steyer, Gabbard and Yang. However, the poll average missed Klobuchar by 8.1 points and Buttigieg by 7.4 points. Note: At least some of the variation between poll results and actual vote totals may be attributable to last-minute voter shifts that occurred after poll interviewing was completed…. Let’s take a look at individual polls:
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, Feb. 12-13
GEORGIA: WSB/Landmark, Feb. 12
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, ELIMINATE CAUCUSES, IOWA FIRST: Morning Consult, Feb. 12
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux