14 Jan Biden Leads Iowa, New Hampshire – Bolton Testimony – Close General Election
Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, January 14
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Quinnipiac, IBD/TIPP, Reuters, The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers show a close presidential race, 1 or 2 points either way. Biden and Bloomberg do best, but not by much. Trump leads only Warren. Note that Trump’s vote range is between 45% and 47%. In 2016, he received 46% of the national popular vote.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: The Des Moines Register poll we reported yesterday showed Sanders in front. This Monmouth poll has Biden on top. It also shows Klobuchar rising––and Buttigieg and Warren slipping. With fluctuating numbers this close in a caucus, anything can happen between now and Feb. 3.
New Hampshire Primary
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads New Hampshire with Sanders second. Buttigieg polls only 7%, which is well below his average from the previous three polls (17%). In October in this poll, Warren was running first.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Quinnipiac/Morning Consult = Average
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads both polls by 6 points. In the Quinnipiac poll:
Among voters nationwide
Would you like to see John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor to President Trump, testify in the Senate impeachment trial or not?
Yes, would like: 66%
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority want Bolton to testify, but partisan views differ. 39% of Republicans, 91% of Democrats and 71% of independents say the former national security advisor should testify. 26% of Republicans “don’t know” if he should testify, a high percentage.
Among adults nationwide
Do you believe that Russia interfered with the 2016 U.S. Presidential election?
RON’S COMMENT: 31% of Republicans, 81% of Democrats and 45% of independents believe that Russia interfered with the election. Among those who say Russia interfered, 71% believe the interference affected the outcome of the election.
Donald Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Michigan since which candidate in what year?
(See answer below)
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Monmouth, Jan. 9-12
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Boston Herald/FPU, Jan. 8-12
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: IDB/TIPP, Jan. 3-11
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, Jan. 8–12; Morning Consult, Jan. 6-12
BOLTON: Quinnipiac, Jan. 8–12
RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 5–7
George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux