NATIONAL: PRESIDENT

Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (48-46)
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +2 (47-45)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +1 (48-47)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +1 (47-46)

RON’S COMMENT: These numbers show a close presidential race, 1 or 2 points either way. Biden and Bloomberg do best, but not by much. Trump leads only Warren. Note that Trump’s vote range is between 45% and 47%. In 2016, he received 46% of the national popular vote.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES

Among Democratic voters in each state

Iowa Caucus
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Amy Klobuchar: 8%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The Des Moines Register poll we reported yesterday showed Sanders in front. This Monmouth poll has Biden on top. It also shows Klobuchar rising––and Buttigieg and Warren slipping. With fluctuating numbers this close in a caucus, anything can happen between now and Feb. 3.

New Hampshire Primary
Joe Biden: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads New Hampshire with Sanders second. Buttigieg polls only 7%, which is well below his average from the previous three polls (17%). In October in this poll, Warren was running first.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = Quinnipiac/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 25%/29% = 27
Bernie Sanders: 19%/23% = 21
Elizabeth Warren: 16%/14% = 15
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/8% = 8
Michael Bloomberg: 6%/8% = 7
Andrew Yang: 5%/5% = 5
Amy Klobuchar: 4%/3% = 3.5
Tom Steyer: 1%/4% = 2.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%/2% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads both polls by 6 points. In the Quinnipiac poll:

• Warren leads among the most liberal Democrats and Biden leads among the least liberal.
• Bloomberg does much better with moderate Democrats than among the most liberal ones (9% vs. 2%).
• Bloomberg does better among blacks than whites (8% vs. 5%).
• Buttigieg does much better among whites than blacks (11% vs. 2%).
• Only 35% of Democrats say their mind is made up, while 63% say they might change. Only 28% of Warren’s voters say their mind is made up, compared to 41% for Biden and 42% for Sanders.
• If Biden was out of the race, his vote would go to: 20% for Sanders, 17% Warren, 13% Bloomberg and 11% Buttigieg.
• If Sanders was out of the race, his vote would go to: 57% for Warren, 11% Biden.
• If Warren was out of the race, her vote would go to: 52% for Sanders, 12% Biden and 11% Buttigieg.

BOLTON TESTIMONY

Among voters nationwide

Would you like to see John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor to President Trump, testify in the Senate impeachment trial or not?

Yes, would like: 66%
No: 17%
Don’t know: 17%

RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority want Bolton to testify, but partisan views differ. 39% of Republicans, 91% of Democrats and 71% of independents say the former national security advisor should testify. 26% of Republicans “don’t know” if he should testify, a high percentage.

RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE

Among adults nationwide

Do you believe that Russia interfered with the 2016 U.S. Presidential election?

Yes: 53%
No: 26%
Not sure: 21%

RON’S COMMENT: 31% of Republicans, 81% of Democrats and 45% of independents believe that Russia interfered with the election. Among those who say Russia interfered, 71% believe the interference affected the outcome of the election.

TUESDAY TRIVIA  

Donald Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Michigan since which candidate in what year?

(See answer below)

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