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Biden Leads Iowa, New Hampshire – Bolton Testimony – Close General Election

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, January 14


Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Quinnipiac, IBD/TIPP, Reuters, The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.


Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (48-46)
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +2 (47-45)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +1 (48-47)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +1 (47-46)

RON’S COMMENT: These numbers show a close presidential race, 1 or 2 points either way. Biden and Bloomberg do best, but not by much. Trump leads only Warren. Note that Trump’s vote range is between 45% and 47%. In 2016, he received 46% of the national popular vote.


Among Democratic voters in each state

Iowa Caucus
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Amy Klobuchar: 8%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The Des Moines Register poll we reported yesterday showed Sanders in front. This Monmouth poll has Biden on top. It also shows Klobuchar rising––and Buttigieg and Warren slipping. With fluctuating numbers this close in a caucus, anything can happen between now and Feb. 3.

New Hampshire Primary
Joe Biden: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads New Hampshire with Sanders second. Buttigieg polls only 7%, which is well below his average from the previous three polls (17%). In October in this poll, Warren was running first.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = Quinnipiac/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 25%/29% = 27
Bernie Sanders: 19%/23% = 21
Elizabeth Warren: 16%/14% = 15
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/8% = 8
Michael Bloomberg: 6%/8% = 7
Andrew Yang: 5%/5% = 5
Amy Klobuchar: 4%/3% = 3.5
Tom Steyer: 1%/4% = 2.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%/2% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads both polls by 6 points. In the Quinnipiac poll:

  • Warren leads among the most liberal Democrats and Biden leads among the least liberal.
  • Bloomberg does much better with moderate Democrats than among the most liberal ones (9% vs. 2%).
  • Bloomberg does better among blacks than whites (8% vs. 5%).
  • Buttigieg does much better among whites than blacks (11% vs. 2%).
  • Only 35% of Democrats say their mind is made up, while 63% say they might change. Only 28% of Warren’s voters say their mind is made up, compared to 41% for Biden and 42% for Sanders.
  • If Biden was out of the race, his vote would go to: 20% for Sanders, 17% Warren, 13% Bloomberg and 11% Buttigieg.
  • If Sanders was out of the race, his vote would go to: 57% for Warren, 11% Biden.
  • If Warren was out of the race, her vote would go to: 52% for Sanders, 12% Biden and 11% Buttigieg.


Among voters nationwide

Would you like to see John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor to President Trump, testify in the Senate impeachment trial or not?

Yes, would like: 66%
No: 17%
Don’t know: 17%

RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority want Bolton to testify, but partisan views differ. 39% of Republicans, 91% of Democrats and 71% of independents say the former national security advisor should testify. 26% of Republicans “don’t know” if he should testify, a high percentage.


Among adults nationwide

Do you believe that Russia interfered with the 2016 U.S. Presidential election?

Yes: 53%
No: 26%
Not sure: 21%

RON’S COMMENT: 31% of Republicans, 81% of Democrats and 45% of independents believe that Russia interfered with the election. Among those who say Russia interfered, 71% believe the interference affected the outcome of the election.


Donald Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Michigan since which candidate in what year?

(See answer below)

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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Monmouth, Jan. 9-12
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Boston Herald/FPU, Jan. 8-12
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, Jan. 8–12; Morning Consult, Jan. 6-12
BOLTON: Quinnipiac, Jan. 8–12
RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 5–7


George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.