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Iowa – Georgia – Impeachment Update – Medicare for All – More Candidates Wanted?

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, November 14

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.

IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide

Elizabeth Warren: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 16%
Joe Biden: 15%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This Hawkeye Poll shows Warren ahead in Iowa. The survey we reported yesterday had her a close third, with Buttigieg first. Looks like candidate order is in flux, with anything possible. This survey shows Warren even further ahead of the field in terms of voters most likely to caucus. Biden’s performance remains below lackluster in Iowa…. Note: The interviewing period for this poll was nearly two weeks, unusually lengthy.

GEORGIA: PRESIDENT

Among voters statewide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (51-43)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (48-44)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (46-43)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (47-44)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (45-44)

RON’S COMMENT: This is not good news for the president. This poll shows him losing to five Democrats. Trump carried Georgia in 2016 by 5 points. Biden beats him here by a decent margin. Georgia has voted Republican in the last six presidential elections. These 16 Electoral votes are crucial for GOP prospects.

DEMOCRATIC FIELD

Among Democratic voters nationwide

SATISFACTION WITH CANDIDATE FIELDAre you generally satisfied with the candidates now running for the 2020 Democratic nomination for President, or do you wish there were more choices? 

Satisfied: 81%
With there were more choices: 19%

RON’S COMMENT: While pundits and political strategists are busy jabbering about the need for an additional candidate for the Democratic nomination, rank-and-file Democratic voters seem satisfied with the field as it is now.

ELECTABILITY VS. POLICY AGREEMENT: Thinking about the Democratic Party’s nominee for president in 2020, which is more important to you… 

A nominee who agrees with your position on most issues: 32%
A nominee who can win the general election in November: 62%

RON’S COMMENT: Most Democrats place electability over policy agreement.

MEDICARE FOR ALL

Among voters nationwide

Do you support or oppose a Medicare-for-All health care system, where all Americans would get their health insurance from the government?

Support: 47%
Oppose: 38%

RON’S COMMENT: While most voters say they support Medicare-for-All, there is no follow-up question that asks whether voters would still support it if they knew it meant the end of a private insurance option or if they had information about the costs. History shows us that looking at only toplines when polling healthcare policy concepts can easily paint the wrong picture. The Obama administration learned that lesson when they got down to the nitty-gritty with Obamacare and watched the large voter majorities that had previously favored universal healthcare reform dwindle as the bill’s details were fleshed out.

IMPEACHMENT

Among voters nationwide

As you may know, the Constitution gives the House of Representatives the sole power to impeach the president. Once a president is impeached by the House of Representatives, the Senate has the sole power to legally try the president and, if convicted, remove the president from office. Would you support or oppose each of the following?

The House of Representatives impeaching President Trump 
Support impeachment: 49%
Oppose impeachment: 41%

RON’S COMMENT: 84% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 10% of Republicans support impeachment.

The Senate removing President Trump from office
Support removal: 48%
Oppose removal: 42%

RON’S COMMENT: 82% of Democrats, 46% of independents and 9% of Republicans support removal.

HOW REP VOTES: If your representative was to vote in favor of impeaching President Trump, would you be more or less likely to vote for them in the next election?

More likely: 38%
Less likely: 34%

RON’S COMMENT: 65% of Democrats would be more likely to vote for a House member who voted to impeach Trump, compared to 10% for Republicans. 6% of Democrats and 72% of Republicans would be less likely.

HOW SENATOR VOTES: If your representative was to vote in favor of impeaching President Trump, would you be more or less likely to vote for them in the next election?

More likely: 38%
Less likely: 34%

RON’S COMMENT: 67% of Democrats would be more likely to vote for a senator who voted to remove Trump, compared to 9% for Republicans. 5% of Democrats and 73% of Republicans would be less likely.

Sources

GEORGIA: Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Oct. 30-Nov. 8
IOWA: The Hawkeye Poll, Univ. of Iowa, Oct. 28-Nov. 10
IMPEACHMENT, MEDICARE-FOR-ALL: Politico/Morning Consult, Nov. 8-10
SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRATIC FIELD: The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 10-12

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.