15 Jan Debate Analysis – North Carolina Senate – California, North Carolina, Nevada
Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, January 15
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (NPR/PBS) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE
By Ron Faucheux
Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire show multiple Democratic candidates bunched together with daily fluctuations. Because of that, you would have expected a more aggressive debate. But it didn’t happen. There was plenty of pent-up frustration on display, but the candidates seemed a bit tired and were reluctant to land any knock-out punches. Overall, there was nothing remarkable about this debate. Each candidate (except Steyer) has done better. The debate did not change the dynamics of the race––which may be good for Biden and Sanders since they’ve been leading in the polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = The Hill/The Economist = Average
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads both polls with a margin of 10 points over Sanders in The Hill poll and 7 points in The Economist poll…. The Hill poll shows Bloomberg knocking out Buttigieg for fourth place and the average of the two surveys puts the former New York mayor slightly ahead of the South Bend mayor…. There is a big 8-point difference in the two polls on Warren’s strength…. These polls were taken before last night’s debate.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
North Carolina Primary
RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a solid lead in North Carolina, which is part of his southern firewall. He receives 22% of whites and 47% of blacks. Sanders gets 16% of blacks, compared to 14% for Warren and 9% for Bloomberg. The primary is March 3.
RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Sanders top the Nevada field with a large undecided vote. 44% of Democrats say they still might change their mind…. Though Bloomberg has not filed for the state’s caucus, 55% of Democrats say they’ve seen his ads––43% say his ads are convincing and 50% say they are “not very” or “not at all” convincing…. 79% of Democrats in Nevada would favor Barack Obama’s appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court and 14% would oppose…. The caucus is Feb. 22.
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders leads this California poll. The primary is March 3 and will distribute 416 delegates. Biden and Warren are close behind. Because this poll oddly excluded candidates not listed above, it did not get a reading on Bloomberg’s strength in the state. Bloomberg has already spent heavily on ads in California and has targeted the state for an all-out effort.
SENATE: NORTH CAROLINA 2020
Among Democratic voters statewide
RON’S COMMENT: This is an important Senate primary. If Democrats nominate a strong general election candidate, they have a real chance to defeat Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in November…. Cunningham, 46, is a former state senator and a major in the U.S. Army Reserves. He ran for the U.S. Senate in 2010, but lost the Democratic nomination to Elaine Marshall that year…. Smith, 50, is a state senator…. None of the Democratic primary contenders are well known statewide, which explains the large undecided.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Hill/HarrisX, Jan. 13-14; The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 11-14
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), Jan. 10-12
NEVADA: USA Today/Suffolk, Jan. 8-11
CALIFORNIA: PPIC, Jan. 1-2
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux