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Trump Support on Iran Rising – Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, January 16


Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

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Among voters in each state

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (49-45)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +2 (46-44)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +3 (48-45)

RON’S COMMENT: Wisconsin is a critical swing state that Trump carried by seven-tenths of a point in 2016. This poll shows a close contest for November, with Biden doing best against Trump. Wisconsin has voted Democratic in seven of the last eight presidential elections…. Trump’s job rating is 48% approve/49% disapprove in this poll. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is 51% approve/40% disapprove.

Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +6 (53-47)
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (51-49)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +2 (51-49)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: even (50-50)

RON’S COMMENT: Florida is the king of swing states. In the last six presidential elections, it voted Democratic three times and Republican three times. Trump won it in 2016 by about a point. This FAU poll shows Sanders doing best against Trump, which has raised eyebrows among some skeptical Democratic operatives…. Trump’s job rating is 45% approve/43% disapprove in this poll. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is 48% approve/28% disapprove.

Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +7 (49-42)
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +6 (50-44)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +5 (50-45)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +4 (47-43)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +3 (48-45)

RON’S COMMENT: These numbers from Michigan are bad news for Trump and good news for several Democrats, especially Bloomberg. Trump won the state by two-tenths of a point in 2016. Before Trump’s victory, Michigan had voted Democratic in the six previous presidential elections…. Trump’s personal rating is 41% favorable/54% unfavorable in this poll.


Among Democratic voters in each state

Florida Primary
Joe Biden: 42%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Michael Bloomberg: 7%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a big lead in Florida’s March 17th primary, a state with 219 delegates. But: 54% of Sunshine State Democrats say they could still change their mind.

Wisconsin Primary
Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 15%
Michael Bloomberg: 6%
Andrew Yang: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a modest lead over Sanders in Wisconsin, which has 77 delegates and an April 7th primary.


Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling Iran? 

Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 49%

RON’S COMMENT: This represents a 4-point improvement for Trump since last week when his numbers were 43% approve/53% disapprove.

Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. airstrike in Iraq that killed Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian general?

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 41%

RON’S COMMENT: Most voters approve of the Suliemani killing––including 85% of Republicans, 45% of independents and 16% of Democrats. Approval for the action has risen 3 points since last week.

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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IRAN ACTION: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 11-14
FLORIDA: Florida Atlantic Univ., Jan. 9-12
WISCONSIN: Marquette, Jan. 8-12

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.