17 Dec Impeachment Backfiring? – Biden on Top – Trump’s Re-Election Numbers Up
Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, December 17
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Since Friday, President Trump’s job rating has gone up 3 points. Looks like the impeachment process may be helping him. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Quinnipiac) to 48% (USA Today, Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
NEED A COMMUNICATIONS AUDIT?
Developing a new communications plan? Want to know your organization’s share of voice? Need actionable analytics on the media landscape? Want to identify key influencers? Start with a media audit from Certus Insights. We leverage cutting edge media analytics to evaluate up to two years’ of news, blogs and social media data. See our social listening capabilities at certusinsights.com
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +5 (50-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Is this more evidence that impeachment is helping Trump’s re-election? In October, Biden was beating Trump by 7 points in this poll, now he’s beating him by 5. In October, Warren was beating the president by 2 points, now she’s losing to him by 5 points. In October, Sanders was beating Trump by 3 points, now he’s losing to the incumbent by 1 point…. Trump’s current polling vs. 2016 performance: Against Biden and Buttigieg, Trump is now polling less than the actual popular votes he received in the 2016 election, which was 46%. Against Warren and Sanders, Trump is now exceeding his 2016 performance (by 2 or 3 points). Against Bloomberg, he’s the same.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Politico/Quinnipiac/NPR, PBS/IBD = Average
RON’S COMMENT: A lot of new polls today. Based on our average, Biden continues in first place, Sanders is second and Warren is third. Buttigieg is holding his vote but hasn’t caught fire nationally. Bloomberg has moved up over the past two weeks, but not dramatically. He’s at 7% in two polls. Klobuchar shows a little life in the PBS/NPR poll…. Since the IBD/TIPP poll last month, Biden dropped 3 points, Sanders climbed 5 points and Warren fell 9 points…. The Quinnipiac poll finds that:
IMPEACHMENT & REMOVAL
Among voters nationwide
Do you think that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don’t you think so?
Yes/impeach & remove: 45%
RON’S COMMENT: Support for impeachment and removal is down 3 points in the Quinnipiac poll from three weeks ago, when 48% supported it…. 5% of Republicans, 86% of Democrats and 36% of independents now want Trump impeached and removed. And: 92% of Republicans, 88% of Democrats and 82% of independents say they do not think they will change their minds on the issue.
Among Democrats nationwide
President Trump has made allegations about Joe Biden and his son’s business dealings in Ukraine and China. How troubling do you find those allegations––extremely, very, somewhat, or not at all?
Extremely/very troubling: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: Those saying the allegations are extremely/very troubling has increased by 1 point since October.
Among African American Democrats nationwide
Joe Biden: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a big lead among black Democrats who are likely to vote in primaries. Biden does a good bit better among black women than black men…. Booker is the only remaining black candidate and he’s polling only 5%…. This survey for BlackPAC also finds that African Americans support progressive policies such as free tuition to public colleges (76%), a new wealth taxon the very rich (73%), reparations (71%), Medicare for All (65%) and a Green New Deal (57%).
Michael Bloomberg was elected mayor for three successive terms (12 years). He tied three other former New York City mayors for the longest serving. Who were those three mayors (hint: all served in the 20th century)?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac Dec . 11-15, NPR/PBS/Marist Dec. 9-11, IBD/TIPP Dec. 5-14, Politico/Morning Consult, Dec. 9-15
IMPEACHMENT & REMOVAL; Quinnipiac, Dec. 11-15
BIDEN ALLEGATIONS: Fox News, Dec. 8-11
BLACK DEMOCRATS: BlackPAC, Normington Petts, Nov. 21-27
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generallyassociated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.
Fiorello LaGuardia (1934-45), Robert F. Wagner (1954-65) and Ed Koch (1978-89).
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux