NEW HAMPSHIRE: PRIMARY
Among primary voters statewide
Among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Cory Booker: 2%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This CNN/UNH poll paints a somewhat different picture of the New Hampshire primary than the St. Anselm poll we reported yesterday. The St. Anselm poll had Biden, Harris and Warren bunched together at the top. The CNN poll has Biden first with Warren and Sanders tied for second. It also shows Harris fifth, slightly behind Buttigieg. Other findings:
- There’s a whole lotta candidate shopping going on in New Hampshire: 64% of primary voters say they’re still trying to decide whom to support. Only 16% have definitely decided. This means the numbers could easily, and radically, change over time.
- Second choice: Warren leads among second choice votes with 22% and Sanders is second at 20%.
- Favorability: This poll pegs Warren and Sanders with the highest favorable ratings (67%) followed by Biden (57%) and Harris (54%).
- Likeability:When asked which candidate is the most likeable, Biden and Sanders are on top with 20% each, Buttigieg is next at 18%, Harris is third at 5% and Warren is fourth at 4%. Biden’s likeability has declined 11 points since February.
- Electability: Most voters (45%) see Biden as most likely to beat Trump. Second is Sanders at 16%.
- Issues: Healthcare, climate change and immigration are seen by Democrats as the top three issues. Interestingly, not one Democrat polled says national security is the top issue and only 6% say foreign relations. Of the candidates, Sanders is seen as the one best able to handle the healthcare issue. Warren is a distant second and Biden is third. Sanders also wins on climate change.
- Debates: 36% think Harris won the first debate and 13% said Warren. Most New Hampshire Democrats think Warren did second best. Also: 15% say the debates changed their mind about which candidate to support.
Among Republican primary voters in New Hampshire
- Donald Trump runs first with 86% of the GOP primary vote and William Weld is second at 7%.
- Trump is getting stronger––in February he drew 68% of Republican primary voters, now he’s getting 86%.
- But… 47% of New Hampshire Republicans prefer Trump face opposition in the primary while 39% prefer he runs unopposed.
- Trump’s rating among New Hampshire Republicans is 84% favorable/10% unfavorable with 5% neutral.