NATIONAL: PRESIDENT

Among voters nationwide

Three-way trial heats (USA Today):
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +3 (44-41-11)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sander: +5 (44-39-13)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +8 (45-37-12)
Donald Trump over Michael Bloomberg: +9 (43-34-15)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +10 (43-33-15)

Two-way trial heats (Emerson):
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (52-48)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +4 (52-48)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +2 (51-49)
Pete Buttigieg and Donald Trump: even (50-50)

RON’S COMMENT: The USA Today poll tests Trump against a named Democrat and a generic third-party candidate. Trump is leading these trial heats, but the third-party candidate is taking more votes away from Democratic candidates than from him. For example, 11% of Democrats, 4% of Republicans and 19% of independents vote for the third-party candidate in the trial heat with Biden. In the trial heat with Warren, 13% of Democrats, 4% of Republicans and 21% of independents vote for the third-party candidate…. The Emerson two-way trial heats show Democrats tying or leading Trump, with Biden and Sanders doing best.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = USA Today/Emerson/The Economist = Average
Joe Biden: 25%/32%/29% = 28.7
Bernie Sanders: 14%/25%/19% = 19.3
Elizabeth Warren: 13%/12%/17% = 14
Pete Buttigieg: 6%/8%/7% = 7
Michael Bloomberg: 4%/3%/4% = 3.7
Andrew Yang: 2%/6%/3% = 3.7
Amy Klobuchar: 4%/2%/4% = 3.3
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%/4%/3% = 2.7
Cory Booker: 3%/2%/2% = 2.3
Tom Steyer: 1%/2%/2% = 1.7
Julian Castro: -/-/2% = 0.7
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The average of the three latest polls continue to show Biden leading the field with Sanders second and Warren falling back. This week’s debate will be a critical opportunity for Warren to regain momentum. The stakes are high for her weakening candidacy. The stakes could also be high for Buttigieg, who is polling well in Iowa and New Hampshire. He may find himself attacked from multiple angles…. Bloomberg’s ads: The USA Today poll finds that 56% of Democrats say they’ve seen Bloomberg’s ads. Ad recall is highest among older voters, men and whites. Of Democrats who saw the ads, 10% say the commercials are “very convincing” and 43% say they’re “somewhat convincing.” 41% say the ads are either “not very convincing” or “not at all convincing” …. In the USA Today poll:

• Biden gets 14% of whites, 20% of Hispanics and 42% of blacks.
• Bloomberg gets 9% of whites, 4% of Hispanics and 2% of blacks.
• Buttigieg gets 12% of whites, 7% of Hispanics and 2% of blacks.
• Sanders gets 12% of whites, 24% of Hispanics and 11% of blacks.
• Warren gets 14% of whites, 16% of Hispanics and 7% of blacks.

AMERICA’S VIEW OF WORLD LEADERS

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Angela Merkel: 49%/27%
Justin Trudeau: 49%/33%
Emmanuel Macron: 40%/28%
Boris Johnson: 34%/36%
Vladimir Putin: 12%/78%

RON’S COMMENT: U.S. voters lean positive on Merkel, Trudeau and Macron and heavily negative on Putin. Johnson is close…. Trudeau’s favorability is much higher among Democrats than Republicans (65% vs. 29%). The same is true for Macron (52% vs. 19%) and Merkel (62% vs. 26%). On the other hand, Johnson does much better with Republicans than Democrats (50% vs. 13%). While Putin’s positive rating is very low across the board, he does better with Republicans than Democrats (20% vs. 8%)…. Worth noting: 59% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans say Trump and Johnson are alike.