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Anti-Semitism – China Trade War – Congress – Feelings About the Candidates

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, December 19


Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 44% (WSJ/NBC) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating…. The Military Times did a poll of active duty military personnel who are subscribers and found that 42% approve of the job Trump is doing and 50% disapprove.

8 PM ET co-hosted by PBS/Politico from Los Angeles.
Participants: Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, Warren and Yang.


Among voters nationwide

% = The Hill/CNN/WSJ-NBC = Average
Joe Biden: 29%/26%/28% = 27.7
Bernie Sanders: 13%/20%/21% = 18
Elizabeth Warren: 13%/16%/18% = 15.7
Pete Buttigieg: 5%/8%/9% = 7.3
Michael Bloomberg: 5%/5%/4% = 4.7
Amy Klobuchar: 3%/3%/5% = 3.7
Andrew Yang: 3%/3%/3% = 3
Julian Castro: 4%/2%/1% = 2.3
Cory Booker: 2%/3%/2% = 2.3
Tom Steyer: 3%/1%/1% = 1.7
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%/1%/2% = 1.3
John Delaney: 2%/1%/- = 1
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: The basic order remains about the same. Recent movement––

  • Over the past six weeks in the WSJ/NBC poll, Biden is up 1 point, Sanders is up 2, Warren is down 5 and Buttigieg is up 3.
  • Over the past three weeks in the CNN poll, Biden is down 2 points, Sanders is up 3, Warren is up 2, Buttigieg is down 3 and Bloomberg is up 2.
  • Over the past two weeks in The Hill poll, Biden is down 2 points, Sanders is down 2, Warren is up 3, Buttigieg is down 4 and Bloomberg is down 1.


Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide

Pete Buttigieg: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Joe Biden: 15%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Cory Booker: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Buttigieg remains in first place, Sanders second and Warren within striking distance. Biden isn’t out of it, but he has a bigger gap to eliminate. If any of the single-digit candidates move up to the top tier, it would most likely be Klobuchar. It’s possible a big shift could occur scrambling the order between now and caucus day Feb 3. Remember 2004 (when John Kerry moved into the lead at the end) and 2008 (when Barack Obama overcame Hillary Clinton and John Edwards).


Among voters nationwide

Do you think the trade war with China has helped or hurt the U.S. economy? 

Helped: 25%
Neither help nor hurt: 14%
Hurt: 49%
Not sure: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: 73% of Democrats, 36% of independents and 20% of Republicans say the trade war with China has hurt the U.S. economy.


Among voters statewide

How serious a problem is anti-Semitism in the United States? 

Very/somewhat serious: 61%
A minor problem/Not a problem: 25%

RON’S COMMENT: 69% of Democrats and 52% of Republicans say anti-Semitism is a “very” or “somewhat” serious problem in the U.S. However, only 16% say anti-Semitism is a “very” or “somewhat” serious problem in their local community…. Also, 87% of voters say Judaism is a religion, 26% say it’s a race and 20% say it’s a nationality.


Among voters nationwide

Which one of these three statements comes closest to your point of view? 

  • I am almost certain to vote for Donald Trump no matter whom the Democrats nominate for president: 34%
  • I am almost certain to vote against Donald Trump no matter whom the Democrats decide to nominate: 48%
  • I may vote for or against Donald Trump depending upon whom the Democrats nominate for president: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s hard opposition is larger than his hard base. To win again, he needs to get most of the voters who now say they could go either way––which is what happened in 2016 when there was last-minute movement toward Trump in key states.


Among voters nationwide

What is your preference for the outcome of next year’s congressional elections — a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats? 

Republican-controlled: 42%
Democrat-controlled: 49%

RON’S COMMENT: These numbers haven’t moved since the end of October.


Among adults nationwide

I’m going to list people who have said they will run for president. For each one, please tell me whether that person is someone you would (a) be enthusiastic about, (b) be comfortable with, (c) have some reservations about, or (d) be very uncomfortable with. If you don’t know the name, please just say so. 

% = Enthusiastic/Comfortable/Have reservations/Very uncomfortable
Donald Trump: 28%/12%/9%/50%
Bernie Sanders: 16%/24%/17%/41%
Joe Biden: 14%/22%/23%/39%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%/22%/16%/38%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%/17%/16%/24%
Michael Bloomberg: 4%/16%/25%/35%

RON’S COMMENT: Looking at the ends of the spectrum––Americans are most “enthusiastic” about Trump, at 28%, but he also has the highest percentage saying they’re “very uncomfortable” with him (50%). For Biden, it’s 14% “enthusiastic” and 39% “very uncomfortable.”

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Hill/HarrisX, Dec. 13-14; CNN, Dec. 12-15; WSJ/NBC, Dec. 14-17
IOWA: Iowa State, Dec. 12-16
U.S. ANTI-SEMITISM, TRADE WAR WITH CHINA: The Economist/YouGov, Dec.14-17

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.