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18-29 Year-Olds – Impeachment Tracker – Biden Tops New Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 19


Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 41% (Politico) to 48% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-2 since yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

%=The Hill/Politico = Average
Joe Biden: 30% / 32% = 31
Bernie Sanders: 18% / 20% = 19
Elizabeth Warren: 15% / 17% = 16
Pete Buttigieg: 7% / 8% = 7.5
Kamala Harris: 4% / 5% = 4.5
Michael Bloomberg: 3% / 3% = 3
Andrew Yang: 2% / 3% / 2.5
Cory Booker: 1% / 2% = 1.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% / 1% = 1.5
Am Klobuchar: 1% / 2% = 1.5
Julian Castro: 2% / 1% = 1.5
John Delaney: 2% / 1% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Two national polls of Democrats give Biden a clear lead with Sanders second and Warren third…. Since the previous poll for The Hill two weeks ago, Biden is up 4, Warren is the same, Sanders is up 4 and Buttigieg is up 1 (we thought the numbers from that previous poll looked strangely low)….Since last week’s Politico/Morning Consult poll, Warren is down 2 and the rest of the top candidates all remained the same. Note: Deval Patrick, the newest entry, isn’t getting anything in this poll.


Among Democratic voters statewide

Joe Biden: 33%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Bernie Sanders: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Tom Steyer: 5%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Another poll showing Biden with a big lead in South Carolina, his early primary firewall.


Among voters nationwide

Latest Polling on Support and Opposition to Impeachment
Marist (Nov. 11-19): Support: 47% / Oppose: 45%:
Morning Consult (Nov. 15-17): Support: 49% / Oppose: 41%
Economist/YouGov (Nov. 10-12): Should impeach: 45% / Should not impeach: 39%
CBS/YouGov (Nov. 9-11): Approve: 53% / Disapprove: 47%
Monmouth (Oct. 3 – Nov. 3): Good idea: 51% / Bad idea: 44%

RON’S COMMENT: All five of the latest impeachment polls show more support for impeachment than opposition, but the margin varies from +2 in the latest Marist poll to +8 in the Morning Consult poll. The question wording for these polls vary, which likely accounts for some of the differences:

MaristBased on what you know at this point, do you support or oppose the impeachment of President Trump?
Morning ConsultDo you support or oppose the current impeachment inquiry into President Trump?
Economist/YouGovDo you think the U.S. House of Representatives should or should not impeach Donald Trump?
CBS/YouGovDo you approve or disapprove of Congressional Democrats starting an impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump?
MonmouthDo you think it is a good idea or bad idea for the House of Representatives to conduct an impeachment inquiry into President Trump that may or may not lead to impeachment?


Among 18 to 29 year-olds nationwide

PARTISAN AFFILIATIONWhen it comes to voting, with which party do you consider yourself to be affiliated?

Democratic party: 40%
Republican party: 24%
Independent/Unaffiliated: 35%

NEWSWATCHINGOverall, how closely do you follow news about national politics?

Closely: 47%
Not closely: 52%

POLITICAL ENGAGEMENTDo you consider yourself to be politically engaged or politically active?

Yes, politically engaged/active: 30%
No: 70%

BIG VS. SMALL CHANGEWhich of the following statements is closest to your own view?

I prefer policies that stand a good chance of being achieved as opposed to sweeping changes that will be difficult to carry out: 40%
I prefer big, structural policy changes that address the urgency of the problems that we are facing, even if they will not be easy to carry out: 34%
Don’t know: 24%

ELECTORAL COLLEGEDo you support or oppose dismantling the Electoral College to ensure that the winner of the national popular vote is elected President?

Support doing away with Electoral College: 40%
Oppose doing away with Electoral College: 24%
Don’t know: 35%

HEALTH INSURANCEDo you support or oppose eliminating private health insurance companies so that all Americans receive health care coverage from the federal government?

Support: 38%
Oppose: 32%
Don’t know: 28%

CIVIC ACTIVITYHave you participated in any of the following activities in the past 12 months?

(% yes)
Volunteered for community service: 30%
Followed at least one presidential candidate on social media: 27%
Posted about a political cause or campaign on social media: 18%
Followed at least one active member of the opposite party on social media: 18%
Participated in political demonstration: 10%
Volunteered on a political campaign for a candidate or an issue: 8%


Which current presidential candidate was born on the South Side of Chicago, received undergraduate and law degrees from Harvard, failed the California bar exam twice before passing it and later served as U.S. Assistant Attorney General?

(See answer below)


Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Hill, Nov. 16-17; Politico/Morning Consult, Nov. 11-17
SOUTH CAROLINA: Quinnipiac, Nov. 13-17
YOUNG AMERICANS: Harvard Kennedy School, Oct. 15-28

When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.


Deval Patrick.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.