NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33% (-5 since the debates)
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 12% (-1)
Kamala Harris: 12% (+6)
Pete Buttigieg: 6% (-1)
Cory Booker: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Beto O’Rourke: 2% (-2)
Amy Klobuchar: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Bill de Blasio: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
Seth Moulton: 1%
Tim Ryan: 1%
Eric Swalwell: 0%
Michael Bennet: 0%
John Hickenlooper: 0%
Jay Inslee: 0%
Marianne Williamson: 0%
RON’S COMMENT: This polling was conducted right after the debates, which means it may have been too soon to measure the full impact of the face-to-face showdowns…. Nevertheless, this early reading shows Biden down 5 points from where he was before the debates, O’Rourke down 2 and Harris up 6. Other candidates experienced only slight or no movement. Despite widely praised first-night debate performances, Castro and Gabbard didn’t move up from 1% and Warren actually went down a point. Perhaps first-night debate gains were washed away by the second night’s program? That’s an hypothesis that should be tested.
On favorability ratings among Democratic voters, Biden is now 71% favorable/21% unfavorable, Sanders 67% favorable/23% unfavorable, Warren 63% favorable/12% unfavorable, Harris 55% favorable/14% unfavorable, O’Rourke 41% favorable/21% unfavorable and Buttigieg 47% favorable/10% unfavorable.
Who drops out first? Looks like the debate didn’t help quite a few candidates who badly needed traction. Incumbent senators Klobuchar, Gillibrand and Bennet, who are still polling at 1% or less, are good examples. At some point, if they don’t show movement they will have to reassess their candidacies. None of these three face re-election this year, but will in 2022 or 2024. The same may apply to Gov. Inslee. His state has a gubernatorial election in 2020 and he’s not term limited. Booker is the only incumbent senator running for president with a seat that’s up in 2020. Incumbent U.S. Reps. Gabbard, Ryan, Moulton and Swalwell hold House seats up in 2020…. Of course, it’s still very early in this presidential race, and these candidates may decide to ride it out a while longer, at least until the next round of debates July 30-31. |