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Buttigieg Leads New Hampshire, Biden Everything Else – California, Arizona – Immigration Goals – Newsom’s Ratings

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, November 20


Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Politico) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

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Among voters statewide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (51-43)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (48-42)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (49-43)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (47-46)

RON’S COMMENT: New Hampshire may be a small state––it has only 4 electoral votes––but it’s a swing state. Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump here by only four-tenths of a point, making it the second closest state tally in the 2016 election. In this new poll, both Biden and Buttigieg beat Trump by clear margins in the state, while Warren struggles with a small lead and Sanders does a little better.


Among Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Since last week in this national poll of Democrats, Biden is up 7 points and Warren is down 4 points. New entry Deval Patrick doesn’t poll anything. Support for Sanders has dwindled to almost nothing among voters 45 and older. Nearly all of his support is among younger voters…. This poll also finds that Michael Bloomberg’s rating among all voters is 25% favorable/45% unfavorable. Among Democrats, it’s 37% favorable/33% unfavorable.


Among Democratic primary voters in each state

Pete Buttigieg: 25%
Joe Biden: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
Tom Steyer: 5%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Cory Booker: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden, Warren and Sanders––each of whom has led New Hampshire polls at points in the past––now find themselves eating Buttigieg’s dust. Since the September Anselm College poll, Buttigieg is up 15 points, Biden is down 9 points, Warren is down 10 points and Sanders is down 2 points. Both Klobuchar and Steyer are each up 3 points, showing some life. The primary is Feb. 11.

Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: California is a two-way race between Biden and Warren for first place. Home state candidate Harris runs fourth. The primary is March 3.

Joe Biden: 29%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden has a clear lead in Arizona, a primary that will be held March 17.


Among voters statewide

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D)’s job rating
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 45%

RON’S COMMENT: 69% of Democrats, 14% of Republicans and 42% of independents approve of Democrat Newsom’s job performance. Newsom was elected governor last year.

Newsom’s handling of wildfires and power shutoffs
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 46%

RON’S COMMENT: 62% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans and 36% of independents approve of Newsom’s handling of wildfires and power shutoffs.


Among voters nationwide

Thinking about the issue of immigration, how important of a goal should each of the following be for immigration policy in the U.S.?

% = Very Important + Somewhat Important
Take in refugees from war and violence: 72%
Increase security along the U.S.-Mexico border: 68%
Establish a way for immigrants here illegally to say legally: 67%
Increase deportations of those in the U.S. illegally: 54%

RON’S COMMENT: These immigration goals are seen as important by majorities of voters, but there are wide differences in partisan views. 91% of Republicans and 49% of Democrats view increased security along the U.S.-Mexico border as important. 48% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats view establishing a way for immigrants here illegally to say legally as important. 58% of Republicans compared to 85% of Democrats view taking in refugees escaping from war and violence as important. And 83% of Republicans compared to 31% of Democrats view increased deportations of immigrants here illegally as important.


Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CALIFORNIA: PPIC Survey,  Nov. 3-12
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, Oct. 31- Nov. 8
NEW HAMPSHIRE: St. Anselm College, Nov. 13-18

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.