21 Feb Michigan Senate – Big State Primaries – Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan
Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, the average is 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders has a clear lead in Nevada with Buttigieg overtaking Biden for second place. Note that six candidates are now players in Nevada. The poll was conducted before and after Wednesday’s debate.The caucus is Feb. 22 for 36 delegates.
South Carolina Primary
RON’S COMMENT: This poll’s interviewing was spread over 11 days, an unusually lengthy period during a time of fast-moving events. The poll was conducted before Wednesday’s debate. The primary is Feb. 29 for 54 delegates.
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders leads this California poll, which was conducted before Wednesday’s debate. The previous poll had Sanders first and Bloomberg second. Bloomberg has put a lot of chips on the line in this mega-state. The primary is March 3 for 415 delegates.
RON’S COMMENT: This will be a fascinating finish. Sanders is first, but Biden and Bloomberg are close behind. At the time the poll was taken, before the debate, Bloomberg had momentum. Now, the big question is whether the former NYC mayor can grow or even maintain his position since his widely criticized debate performance. The primary is March 3 for 228 delegates.
RON’S COMMENT: Klobuchar leads her home state, but not by a huge margin. The primary is March 3 for 75 delegates.
North Carolina Primary
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders and Bloomberg have overtaken Biden in this Southern state. Note that this poll was taken before he debate. The primary is March 3 for 110 delegates.
RON’S COMMENT: Bloomberg was winning Florida right before the debate, but we don’t know where he is now since the debate. The primary is March 17 for 219 delegates.
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders has a lead in this pre-debate poll, which was conducted over eight days, a lengthy period during a time of fast-moving events. The primary is March 17 for 155 delegates.
GENERAL ELECTION: BY STATE
Among voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were critical to Trump’s election in 2016. He carried all three by very small margins. In this polling, Democrats lead Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Trump wins Wisconsin. These polls were conducted by Quinnipiac. Their polls often show Democrats doing better than other polls. From the survey reports:
SENATE: MICHIGAN 2020
Among voters statewide
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +6 (45-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Democrat Peters posts a lead, though less than awesome, over GOP challenger James. Republicans think they have a shot at an upset. Handicappers rate the general election “lean” Democratic. Michigan, along with Alabama, are the two states Trump won in 2016 that have Democratic senators seeking re-election this year. If Trump loses Michigan in November, it would be very difficult for James to prevail.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: KLAS/Emerson, Feb. 19-20
SOUTH CAROLINA: Winthrop, Feb. 9-19
CALIFORNIA: Monmouth, Feb. 16-19
MINNESOTA: UMass/Lowell, Feb. 12-19
NORTH CAROLINA: UMass/Lowell, Feb. 12-18
TEXAS: UMass/Lowell, Feb. 12-18
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, Feb. 18-19
ILLINOIS: Simon Poll/SIU, Feb. 10-17
MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA: Quinnipiac, Feb. 12-18
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux