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Michigan Senate – Big State Primaries – Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, The Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, the average is 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES

Among Democratic voters in each state

Nevada Caucus
Bernie Sanders: 30%
Pete Buttigieg: 17%
Joe Biden: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Amy Klobuchar: 11%
Tom Steyer: 10%
Candidates receiving 4% or less not included

RON’S COMMENT: Sanders has a clear lead in Nevada with Buttigieg overtaking Biden for second place. Note that six candidates are now players in Nevada. The poll was conducted before and after Wednesday’s debate.The caucus is Feb. 22 for 36 delegates.

South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Tom Steyer: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%
Candidates receiving 4% or less not included

RON’S COMMENT: This poll’s interviewing was spread over 11 days, an unusually lengthy period during a time of fast-moving events. The poll was conducted before Wednesday’s debate. The primary is Feb. 29 for 54 delegates.

California Primary
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Joe Biden: 17%
Michael Bloomberg: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Tom Steyer: 5%
Candidates receiving 4% or less not included

RON’S COMMENT: Sanders leads this California poll, which was conducted before Wednesday’s debate. The previous poll had Sanders first and Bloomberg second. Bloomberg has put a lot of chips on the line in this mega-state. The primary is March 3 for 415 delegates.

Texas Primary
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Joe Biden: 20%
Michael Bloomberg: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Amy Klobuchar: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Candidates receiving 4% or less not included

RON’S COMMENT: This will be a fascinating finish. Sanders is first, but Biden and Bloomberg are close behind. At the time the poll was taken, before the debate, Bloomberg had momentum. Now, the big question is whether the former NYC mayor can grow or even maintain his position since his widely criticized debate performance. The primary is March 3 for 228 delegates.

Minnesota Primary
Amy Klobuchar: 27%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Michael Bloomberg: 9%
Joe Biden: 9%
Candidates receiving 4% or less not included

RON’S COMMENT: Klobuchar leads her home state, but not by a huge margin. The primary is March 3 for 75 delegates.

North Carolina Primary
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Michael Bloomberg: 19%
Joe Biden: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Amy Klobuchar: 7%
Candidates receiving 4% or less not included

RON’S COMMENT: Sanders and Bloomberg have overtaken Biden in this Southern state. Note that this poll was taken before he debate. The primary is March 3 for 110 delegates.

Florida Primary
Michael Bloomberg: 32%
Joe Biden: 27%
Bernie Sanders: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Amy Klobuchar: 7%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Candidates receiving 4% or less not included

RON’S COMMENT: Bloomberg was winning Florida right before the debate, but we don’t know where he is now since the debate. The primary is March 17 for 219 delegates.

Illinois Primary
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Michael Bloomberg: 17%
Joe Biden: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Amy Klobuchar: 8%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%
Candidates receiving 4% or less not included

RON’S COMMENT: Sanders has a lead in this pre-debate poll, which was conducted over eight days, a lengthy period during a time of fast-moving events. The primary is March 17 for 155 delegates.

GENERAL ELECTION: BY STATE

Among voters in each state

Michigan
Bloomberg over Trump: +5
Sanders over Trump: +5
Biden over Trump: +4
Warren over Trump: +2
Buttigieg over Trump: +1
Klobuchar over Trump: +1

Wisconsin
Trump over Biden: +7
Trump over Sanders: +7
Trump over Bloomberg: +8
Trump over Buttigieg: +8
Trump over Warren: +10
Trump over Klobuchar: +11

Pennsylvania
Biden over Trump: +8
Klobuchar over Trump: +7
Bloomberg over Trump: +6
Buttigieg over Trump: +4
Sanders over Trump: +4
Warren over Trump: +3

RON’S COMMENT: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were critical to Trump’s election in 2016. He carried all three by very small margins. In this polling, Democrats lead Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Trump wins Wisconsin. These polls were conducted by Quinnipiac. Their polls often show Democrats doing better than other polls. From the survey reports:

  • President Trump has a split favorability rating in Wisconsin with 50% of voters saying they have a favorable opinion of him, while 47% say they have an unfavorable opinion of him. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, the president is negatively viewed by more than half of registered voters.
  • The Democratic presidential candidates are mostly negatively viewed by voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
  • Voters in all three states are in sync in naming the three most important issues in deciding who to vote for in the presidential election. Overall, the economy tops the list among voters, followed by health care and climate change.
  • The president scores his highest job approval rating among voters in Wisconsin, 51-46%. In both Michigan and Pennsylvania, his job approval is underwater as more voters disapprove than approve of the job he’s doing. In Michigan, voters disapprove 54-42%. In Pennsylvania, voters disapprove 52-44%..
  • The president gets high marks for his handling of the economy. Wisconsin voters approve 59-38% of Trump’s handling of the economy, Pennsylvania voters approve 57-41% and Michigan voters approve 52-44%.

SENATE: MICHIGAN 2020

Among voters statewide

Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +6 (45-39)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Democrat Peters posts a lead, though less than awesome, over GOP challenger James. Republicans think they have a shot at an upset. Handicappers rate the general election “lean” Democratic. Michigan, along with Alabama, are the two states Trump won in 2016 that have Democratic senators seeking re-election this year. If Trump loses Michigan in November, it would be very difficult for James to prevail.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: KLAS/Emerson, Feb. 19-20
SOUTH CAROLINA: Winthrop, Feb. 9-19
CALIFORNIA: Monmouth, Feb. 16-19
MINNESOTA: UMass/Lowell, Feb. 12-19
NORTH CAROLINA: UMass/Lowell, Feb. 12-18
TEXAS: UMass/Lowell, Feb. 12-18
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, Feb. 18-19
ILLINOIS: Simon Poll/SIU, Feb. 10-17
MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA: Quinnipiac, Feb. 12-18

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.