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100 Senators Rated – Dems by Issue – Voting: Party or Candidate? – Iran Strike

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, January 22


Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Politico, Monmouth) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = CNN/Morning Consult/Monmouth = Average
Joe Biden: 24%/29%/30% = 27.7
Bernie Sanders: 27%/24%/23% = 24.7
Elizabeth Warren: 14%/15%/14% = 14.3
Pete Buttigieg: 11%/8%/6% = 8.3
Michael Bloomberg: 5%/10%/9% = 8
Amy Klobuchar: 4%/3%/5% = 4
Andrew Yang: 4%/4%/3% = 3.7
Tom Steyer: 2%/3%/1% =2
Tulsi Gabbard: -/2%/1%% = 1
Candidates with 1% or less in every poll not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Based on the average of these three new national polls (taken after the last debate), the gap between Biden and Sanders is tightening and the gap between Sanders and Warren is widening. The two mayors, Buttigieg and Bloomberg, are about tied. Klobuchar shows some, but limited, movement.


Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = Foreign Relations/Healthcare/Economy
Joe Biden: 32%/22%/22%
Bernie Sanders: 20%/28%/23%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%/13%/13%
Michael Bloomberg: 6%/8%/11%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%/5%/5%
Andrew Yang: 3%/2%/4%
Tom Steyer: 2%/2%/4%
Amy Klobuchar: 1%/1%/1%

RON’S COMMENT: Among Democrats––Biden wins on foreign relations and Sanders wins on healthcare and the economy (slightly). Warren, who once was seen as the field’s policy ace, now ranks third on all three issues. Bloomberg does best on the economy. None of the other candidates have standout numbers.


Among voters nationwide

As you may know, President Trump recently authorized an airstrike at Baghdad International Airport that killed Iran’s top general Qasem Soleimani. Based on what you know, do you approve or disapprove of the airstrike? 

Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 39%

RON’S COMMENT: 17% of Democrats, 48% of independents and 85% of Republicans approve of the airstrike. There’s a generational divide: 38% of Millennials vs. 54% of Boomers approve of the airstrike.


Among voters nationwide

Which comes closest to describing the way you vote for candidates on your ballot?

I usually vote straight ticket, all the same party, regardless of the candidate: 33%
I usually vote for the candidate, regardless of party: 67%

RON’S COMMENT: 41% of Republicans, 41% of Democrats, 15% of independents, 28% of whites, 59% of blacks and 30% of Hispanics say they vote a straight party ticket.


Among voters in each state

TOP 10
Vermont, Bernie Sanders (I): 65%/29%
Wyoming, John Barrasso (R): 64%/21%
Vermont, Patrick Leahy (D): 64%/24%
Wyoming, Mike Enzi (R): 62%/17%
Maine, Angus King (I): 58%/31%
North Dakota, John Hoeven (R): 56%/25%
Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar (D): 56%/31%
Rhode Island, Jack Reed (D): 53%/24%
Delaware, Chris Coons (D): 52%/28%
South Dakota, John Thune (R): 52%/35%

New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen (D): 52%/ 37%
Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse (D): 51%/31%
New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan (D): 51%/35%
West Virginia, Joe Manchin (D): 51%/38%
Delaware, Tom Carper (D): 50%/27%
Massachusetts, Ed Markey (D): 50%/25%
South Carolina, Tim Scott (R): 50%/24%
South Dakota, Mike Rounds (R): 50%/34%
Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren (D): 50%/40%
Maryland, Ben Cardin (D): 49%/23%
Georgia, David Perdue (R): 49%/26%
Virginia, Mark Warner (D): 49%/30%
Idaho, Mike Crapo (R): 49%/30%
Texas, Ted Cruz (R): 49%/34%
Arkansas, John Boozman (R): 48%/25%
Louisiana, John Kennedy (R): 48%/26%
Oregon, Ron Wyden (D): 48%/27%
Washington, Maria Cantwell (D): 48%/29%
Hawaii, Brian Schatz (D): 48%/29%
Arkansas, Tom Cotton (R): 48%/31%

Florida, Marco Rubio (R): 48%/33%
South Carolina, Lindsey Graham (R): 48%/36%
Utah, Mitt Romney (R): 48%/38%
Montana, Jon Tester (D): 48%/39%
Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (R): 47%/31%
West Virginia, Shelley Moore Capito (R): 47%/ 33%
Louisiana, Bill Cassidy (R): 47%/26%
Montana, Steve Daines (R): 47%/31%
Mississippi, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R): 47%/ 31%
New York, Chuck Schumer (D): 47%/35%
North Dakota, Kevin Cramer (R): 47%/ 35%
Connecticut, Chris Murphy (D): 47%/35%
Florida, Rick Scott (R): 47%/36%
Hawaii, Mazie Hirono (D): 47%/37%
Mississippi, Roger Wicker (R): 47%/27%
Maryland, Chris Van Hollen (D): 46%/22%
Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D): 46%/30%
Washington, Patty Murray (D): 46%/31%
Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin (D): 46%/37%
Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal (D): 46%/38%
Utah, Mike Lee (R): 46%/32%
Idaho, Jim Risch (R): 46%/28%
Alabama, Richard Shelby (R): 46%/ 29%
Tennessee, Lamar Alexander (R): 45%/30%
New Jersey, Cory Booker (D): 45%/ 36%
Virginia, Tim Kaine (D): 45%/ 34%
Oregon, Jeff Merkley (D): 45%/28%
Nebraska, Ben Sasse (R): 45%/35%
Indiana, Mike Braun (R): 44 %/26%
Texas, John Cornyn (R): 44%/25%
Georgia, Johnny Isakson (R): 44%/ 24%
Oklahoma, James Lankford (R): 44%/27%
Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema (D): 44%/30%
Michigan, Debbie Stabenow (D): 44%/35%
Iowa, Chuck Grassley (R): 43%/38%
Missouri, Josh Hawley (R): 43%/30%
Oklahoma, James Inhofe (R): 43%/31%
Alaska, Dan Sullivan (R): 43%/33%
Indiana, Todd Young (R): 43%/24%

Pennsylvania, Bob Casey (D): 42%/31%
Maine, Susan Collins (R): 42%/52%
Illinois, Tammy Duckworth (D): 42%/32%
California, Dianne Feinstein (D): 42%/37%
New York, Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 42%/32%
Minnesota, Tina Smith (D): 42%/29%
Nebraska, Deb Fischer (R): 41%/40%
California, Kamala Harris (D): 41%/36%
Wisconsin, Ron Johnson (R): 41%/35%
Alabama, Doug Jones (D): 41%/35%
Alaska, Lisa Murkowski (R): 41%/41%
Kentucky, Rand Paul (R): 41%/39%
Missouri, Roy Blunt (R): 40%/36%
Nevada, Catherine Cortez-Masto (D): 40%/32%
Kansas, Jerry Moran (R): 40%/29%
Ohio, Rob Portman (R): 40%/31%
Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey (R): 40%/35%
Colorado, Michael Bennet (D): 39%/32%
New Mexico, Martin Heinrich (D): 39%/34%
New Mexico, Tom Udall (D): 39%/33%
North Carolina, Richard Burr (R): 38%/34%

Nevada, Jacky Rosen (D): 38%/33%
Illinois, Dick Durbin (D): 38%/37%
Colorado, Cory Gardner (R): 37%/40%
Iowa, Joni Ernst (R): 37%/42%
Michigan, Gary Peters (D): 37%/29%
Kansas, Pat Roberts (R): 37%/35%
Arizona, Martha McSally (R): 37%/40%
Kentucky, Mitch McConnell (R): 37%/50%
New Jersey, Bob Menendez (D): 35%/40%
North Carolina, Thom Tillis (R): 34%/37%

RON’S COMMENT: Key findings––

  • Of the top 10 most popular senators in their home states, four are Republicans, four are Democrats and two are independents who caucus with Democrats.
  • Of the bottom 10 least popular senators, six are Republicans and four are Democrats.
  • Of the four presidential candidates who are senators, Sanders is most popular in his home state (65/29), followed by Klobuchar (56/31), Warren (50/40) and Bennet (39/32).
  • Of senators expected to have the toughest re-election races this year, Tillis (R) ranks on the bottom at 34/37 and Collins (R) has the highest disapproval rating (52%). McSally (R), Gardner (R), McConnell (R) and Ernst (R) rank in the bottom 10 with net negative job ratings. Jones (D) has a net positive rating and ranks in the lower middle.
  • Of women senators, one is in the top 10, four are in the upper middle, seven in the middle, nine in the lower middle and three in the bottom 10.
  • Isakson (R) recently resigned from the Senate.
  • Caveat: This data is based on surveys conducted between October 1 and December 31, 2019. As such, some of these results may not provide a useful current reading.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: CNN, Jan. 16-19; Morning Consult, Jan. 15-19; Monmouth, Jan. 16-20
DEMOCRATS RATED ON ISSUES, IRAN STRIKE: Politico/Morning Consult, Jan. 10-12
VOTING BY PARTY, CANDIDATE: The Hill/HarrisX, Jan. 13-14
100 SENATORS: JOB RATINGS: Morning Consult, Oct. 1-Dec. 31

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.