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22 Nov New York State – National Nomination Recap – Trump vs. Generic Dem

Posted at 16:54h in Lunchtime Politics by

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 22

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: President Trump’s job approval rating has remained remarkably stable during the impeachment inquiry. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters, Politico) to 48% (Emerson). Without these extremes, it would be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-2 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

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NATIONAL: PRESIDENT

Among voters nationwide

Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (50-49)
Donald Trump (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D): even (50-50)
Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +4 (52-48)

RON’S COMMENT: This Emerson College poll of voters nationwide will surely raise eyebrows: Trump leads three of the four Democrats tested against him. And: Sanders and Warren do better against the president than does Biden. If this is accurate, and is confirmed by other polls, it’s good news for Trump and could spell the beginning of the end of Biden’s electability argument. Keep in mind, I said IF…. For more on Biden and the electability advantage, go to http://bit.ly/34egrPk

NATIONAL RECAP: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among voters nationwide

Here is the average of the four most recent national polls of Democratic primary voters:

Joe Biden: 30%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: These averages are based on polls conducted before Wednesday’s debate. They provide a useful pre-debate baseline to track candidate progress after the debate.

NEW YORK: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic voters statewide

Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Over the past month in this New York state poll, Biden is up 3, Warren is down 7, Sanders is down 3 and Buttigieg is up 1…. Unfortunately, former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg was not included in this trial heat, which would have been interesting…. Also: 35% of Democrats in the state think Biden has the best chance to win the presidency. New candidate Deval Patrick scores zero…. The primary is April 28.

NEW YORK STATE POLITICS

Among voters statewide

Among all general election voters statewide:

  • Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg is 47% favorable/39% unfavorable.
  • Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is 30% favorable/62% unfavorable.
  • Current NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio is 27% favorable/52% unfavorable.
  • Gov. Andrew Cuomo is 44% favorable/49% unfavorable.
  • Pres. Donald Trump is 32% favorable/65% unfavorable.

Among only Democrats in New York state: 

  • Bloomberg is 55% favorable/36% unfavorable.
  • Cuomo is 59% favorable/34% unfavorable.

TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 

Democratic candidate: 49% (same as last week)
Trump: 40% (-1 since last week)
It depends: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 9 points, last week it was 8 points.

Sources

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Emerson College, Nov. 17-20
NEW YORK: Siena College, Nov. 12-18
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 17-19

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.