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23 Dec Social Media Usage – General Election Debate? – National Prez Poll

Posted at 21:12h in Lunchtime Politics by

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, December 23

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 44% (WSJ/NBC, Politico) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as Friday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.

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LUNCHTIME POLITICS WILL TAKE A BREAK STARTING TOMORROW AND RESUME REGULAR DAILY PUBLICATION IN EARLY JANUARY. 

NATIONAL: PRESIDENT

Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +5 (49-44)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +4 (49-45)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +1 (46-45)

RON’S COMMENT: This poll has three Democrats leading Trump by modest to slight margins. Biden continues to do best. Note in the polling that Trump does not exceed the 46% he received in the actual 2016 election. The following internals show voter group support for each candidate:

In the Biden vs. Trump race:

  • Biden wins women by 19 points and Trump wins men by 11 points.
  • Trump leads whites by 12 points and Biden leads nonwhites by 41 points.
  • Biden wins voters 18-34 by 13 points, while Trump wins voters 65+ by 1 point.
  • Biden gets 88% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans. He leads independents by 10 points.

In the Sanders vs. Trump race:

  • Sanders wins women by 17 points and Trump wins men by 9 points.
  • Trump leads whites by 14 points and Sanders leads nonwhites by 44 points.
  • Sanders wins voters 18-34 by 11 points, while Trump wins voters 65+ by 3 points.
  • Sanders gets 88% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans. He leads independents by 11 points.

In the Warren vs. Trump race:

  • Warren wins women by 13 points and Trump wins men by 13 points.
  • Trump leads whites by 17 points and Warren leads nonwhites by 37 points.
  • Warren wins voters 18-34 by 4 points, while Trump wins voters 65+ by 5 points.
  • Warren gets 85% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans. She leads independents by 5 points.

In the Buttigieg vs. Trump race:

  • Buttigieg wins women by 10 points and Trump wins men by 13 points.
  • Trump leads whites by 15 points and Buttigieg leads nonwhites by 27 points.
  • Buttigieg wins voters 18-34 by 4 points, while Trump wins voters 65+ by 7 points.
  • Buttigieg gets 83% of Democrats and 3% of Republicans. He leads independents by 2 points.

SHOULD TRUMP DEBATE?

Among voters nationwide

Do you think Donald Trump should or should not participate in presidential debates in the general election? 

Should debate: 63%
Should not debate: 18%
Not sure: 19%

RON’S COMMENT: 69% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans say he should debate. The same poll found that 40% of Democrats think Trump will NOT debate and 52% of Republicans think he will.

PARTY FAVORABILITY

Among voters nationwide

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the political parties? 

Democratic Party
Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 50%

Republican Party
Favorable: 41%
Unfavorable: 55%

RON’S COMMENT: Among independents, Republicans do a little better than Democrats: The Democratic Party is 25% favorable/53% unfavorable and the Republican Party is 29% favorable/48% unfavorable.

SOCIAL MEDIA USAGE

Among adults nationwide

Do you use the following social media networks? 

% = at least weekly usage
Facebook: 62%
YouTube: 48%
Instagram: 28%
Twitter: 20%
WhatsApp: 11%
LinkedIn: 8%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats are more likely to use all of the networks except Facebook, where Republicans have a small edge.

How often do you post original content you have made, including tweets, posts, grams, or videos, to the following social media network(s)? 

% = at least weekly usage
WhatsApp: 33%
Facebook: 28%
Instagram: 26%
Twitter: 28%
YouTube: 15%
LinkedIn: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: WhatsApp attracts more original content than do other networks.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: CNN, Dec. 12-15
DEBATE, PARTY FAVORABILITY: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 14-17
SOCIAL MEDIA USAGE: Ipsos, Dec. 16-17

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.