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Mississippi Governor – What Women Say – Iowa, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Massachusetts Primaries

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 24

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 44% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating.

NATIONAL: PRESIDENT

Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (53-43)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (52-43)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (52-44)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (50-44)

RON’S COMMENT: This CNN poll has all four Democrats leading Trump, with Biden doing best. In April in this poll, Biden was leading Trump by 6 points and Warren trailed Trump by 1 point.

 

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = The Economist/Quinnipiac = Average
Elizabeth Warren: 23%/28% = 25.5
Joe Biden: 24%/21% = 22.5
Bernie Sanders: 16%/15% = 15.5
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/10% = 9
Kamala Harris: 5%/5% = 5
Amy Klobuchar: 2%/3% = 2.5
Andrew Yang: 3%/1% = 2
Cory Booker: 3%/1% = 2
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%/1% = 1.5
Beto O’Rourke: 2%/1% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: In recent days, we’ve had a run of polls showing Biden ahead nationally. But the new Quinnipiac poll has Warren in the lead and The Economist poll shows it nearly even between the top two, complicating the equation…. But, both polls today also show Biden and Warren dropping: Since last week in The Economist poll: Warren is down 6 points, Biden is down 1 point, Sanders is up 3 points and Buttigieg is up 1 point. Since last week in the Quinnipiac poll: Warren is down 2 points, Biden is down 6 points, Sanders is up 4 points and Buttigieg is up 2 points.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES

Among Democratic voters in each state

Iowa Caucus
Elizabeth Warren: 28%
Pete Buttigieg: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Joe Biden: 12%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This Iowa State Univ. poll reshuffles the deck, showing Warren leading with Buttigieg second and Sanders third. Biden slips to fourth. The two previous polls (USA Today, Emerson), when averaged, had Biden at 20.5%, Warren 20%, Buttigieg at 14.5% and Sanders at 11%. Go figure.

South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 33%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s firewall in South Carolina is holding. However, the last two polls from South Carolina showed Biden with an average of 38.5% and Warren with an average of 13.5%.

Wisconsin Primary
Joe Biden: 31%
Elizabeth Warren: 24%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads the field in Wisconsin. A previous poll in early October had Biden at 28%, Warren at 22% and Sanders at 17%.

Massachusetts Primary
Elizabeth Warren: 33%
Joe Biden: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Warren holds the lead in her home state. Since a prior poll in early September, Warren has jumped 9 points and Biden has fallen 8 points.

MISSISSIPPI: GOVERNOR 2019

Among voters statewide

Tate Reeves (R) over Jim Hood (D): +3 (46-43)

RON’S COMMENT: This has been a surprisingly close race in such a red state. Republican Reeves is the state’s lieutenant governor and Democrat Hood is the state’s AG. Hood is winning blacks 80-7 and Reeves is winning whites 66-24.

TOP ISSUES FOR WOMEN

Among women nationwide

How much of a problem do you think each of the following is in the country today? For each one, please indicate whether you think it is a big problem, a moderate problem, a small problem, or not a problem at all.

% = Say big problem
Cost of health care: 77%
Gun violence: 67%
Violent crime: 59%
Climate change: 53%
Access to quality health care: 53%
Terrorism: 50%
Racial discrimination: 46%
Sexual harassment: 42%
Affordable childcare: 40%
Sexual discrimination: 29%

RON’S COMMENT: For women, the cost of healthcare and gun violence rank as the top two issues facing the country today. Climate change also ranks close to the top at 53%. In split sample experiments, the “cost of healthcare” generated more concern than “access to quality health care.” “Gun violence” also generated more concern than “violent crime.”

WOMEN IN SOCIETY

Among women nationwide

For you personally, how important is it for the United States to elect a woman to the office of U.S. President? Would you say it is…

Very important: 16%
Somewhat important: 28%
Not very important: 27%
Not at all important: 29%

RON’S COMMENT: 38% of white women think it’s very or somewhat important to elect a woman president compared with 55 percent of black and Latina women.

All things considered, who do you think has it easier in our country these days…

Men: 53%
Women: 6%
No difference: 41%

And, when it comes to life as a woman in America, do you think things are getting …

Better: 34%
Worse: 21%
Staying about the same: 44%

Below are the names of various jobs. For each one, please indicate whether you think the opportunity for women to advance in that profession is better, worse or about the same as it is for men.

% = Say women have less opportunity than men to advance in these jobs
The U.S. military: 62%
Politician: 59%
Professional athlete: 58%
Scientist: 36%
Finance/Banking: 34%
Computer programming: 34%
Small business owner: 29%
Professor: 24%
Doctor: 23%
Public school teacher: 4%
Nurse: 2%

Have you ever personally experienced discrimination or been treated unfairly because of your gender, or not?

Yes: 40%
No: 60%

RON’S COMMENT: Do you find it surprising that only two in five women say they’ve been discriminated against or treated unfairly because of gender?

Sources

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 20-22
IOWA: Iowa State Univ., Oct. 18-22
TOP ISSUES, WOMEN IN SOCIETY: National Geographic/Ipsos, Sep. 25 – Oct. 2
MISSISSIPPI: Mason-Dixon, Oct. 17-19
SOUTH CAROLINA: Monmouth, Oct. 16-21
WISCONSIN: Marquette, Oct. 13-17
MASSACHUSETTS: WBUR/MassINC, Oct. 16-20

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.