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Post-Debate National Poll – Georgia – New Hampshire – Capital Punishment

Your Daily Polling Update Tuesday, November 26

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as  yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Politico) to 48% (Emerson). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

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NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 30%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This Politico poll was taken after the last debate. Compared to a week ago, Biden is down 2, Sanders is up 1, Warren is down 2, Buttigieg is up 1.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 13%
Joe Biden: 12%
Tulsi Gabbard: 6%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This shows a four-way battle in New Hampshire with Sanders first and Biden slumping to fourth. Also, 43% say they might change their minds––which means anything could still happen…. Interestingly, 68% of voters who pick a candidate say they’d vote for any Democrat nominated against Trump––but, 7% say they’d vote for Trump, 9% would vote for a third-party candidate and 3% would skip voting in November if their first choice for the Democratic nomination isn’t nominated…. 26% of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters say they’ve attended a campaign event and 56% say at least one of the campaigns has contacted them directly. Most voters have been contacted by Warren (39%) or Sanders (37%). Buttigieg is third (29%) and Biden fourth (25%)…. Most voters say they thought Buttigieg won the last debate with Klobuchar ranking second.

GEORGIA: PRESIDENT

Among voters statewide

Among Democratic voters statewide
Joe Biden: 36%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Michael Bloomberg: 6%
Others: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: Add Georgia to Biden’s southern firewall…. Looks like about half of Bloomberg’s modest vote percentage comes out of Biden’s hide. The rest comes mostly from Sanders and Harris…. Biden wins 46% of black voters.

Among all general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (47-43)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (47-44)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (46-45)
Donald Trump (R) over Michael Bloomberg (D): +2 (44-42)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +4 (45-41)

RON’S COMMENT: In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 5 points in Georgia. In this poll, Trump loses to Biden, Sanders and barely to Warren.

GEORGIA POLITICS

Among voters statewide

2020 Senate election
Sen. David Perdue (R): 40%
Democratic opponent: 37%
Need to know opponent: 14%

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent GOP Sen. Perdue is leading a generic Democrat by only 3 points. Voters who say they’d “need to know the opponent” tend to be mostly independents and Democrats…. Note that Georgia will have two Senate races in 2020. One for Purdue’s seat and the other for Sen. Johnny Isakson’s seat. Republican Isakson is resigning due to health issues. Gov. Kemp will soon appoint a temporary replacement.

Gov. Brian Kemp (R) personal rating
Favorable: 42%
Neutral: 23%
Unfavorable: 25%

RON’S COMMENT: Kemp’s favorable rating is 45% among men, 40% among women, 56% among whites, 17% among blacks, 78% among Republicans and 18% among Democrats.

CAPITAL PUNISHMENT

Among voters statewide

If you could choose between the following two approaches, which do you think is the better penalty for murder …?

The death penalty: 36%
Life imprisonment, with absolutely no possibility of parole: 60%

RON’S COMMENT: This is the first time in the 34-year trend of Gallup polling that a majority has favored life imprisonment over the death penalty. In 2014, 50% chose the death penalty, compared to 45% supporting life imprisonment. Since 2014, Democrats have grown more unified in their preference for life imprisonment (60% in 2014 to 79% now), independents have flipped their preference to life imprisonment (44% in 2014 to 60% now), and Republicans have become less unified, with nearly four-in-10 supporting life imprisonment (29% in 2014 to 38% now).

Sources

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE:  Suffolk University/Boston Globe, Nov.
GEORGIA: SurveyUSA, Nov. 15-18
CAPITAL PUNISHMENT: Gallup, Oct. 14-31

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Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.