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Big State Primaries – Separation of Church, State – Trump’s Removal – Superbowl Picks – Debate Influence

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, January 30

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Politico, Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

BIG STATE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

Among Democratic voters in each state

Florida Primary
Joe Biden: 41%
Michael Bloomberg: 17%
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden still holds a lock on Florida. Bloomberg has zoomed into second place. Among whites, Biden leads Bloomberg 33-20. Among blacks, Biden leads Bloomberg 57-13. Among Hispanics, Biden leads Bloomberg 36-21…. Bloomberg’s greatest strength is in the following areas: West Palm Beach (24%), Fort Myers (22%) and Miami (22%). Biden does his best (polling 46%) in Pensacola, Tallahassee and Miami. Florida votes March 17 and has 219 delegates.

California Primary
Bernie Sanders: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Joe Biden: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 4%
Michael Bloomberg: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This poll is great news for Sanders, showing him with a big lead in California. It’s not such good news for anybody else, particularly Bloomberg and Biden. The stakes are high. California votes March 3 and has 415 delegates.

Texas Primary
Joe Biden: 28%
Bernie Sanders: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Michael Bloomberg: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Others 3% or less

RON’S COMMENT: This poll from Texas is good for Sanders, battling Biden in a close contest. Texas is an important primary for Bloomberg, given his big-state strategy. The state votes March 3 and has 228 delegates.

Pennsylvania Primary
Joe Biden: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Michael Bloomberg: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads in his birth state with Sanders and Warren vying for second place. Pennsylvania doesn’t vote until April 28 and has 186 delegates.

TRUMP’S REMOVAL / NEW EVIDENCE

Among voters nationwide

Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not remove Donald Trump from office? 

Should remove from office: 47%
Should not remove from office: 46%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters are nearly split down the middle. 82% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans favor removal.

Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not consider new evidence or evidence that was not included in the House Impeachment hearings? 

Should consider new evidence: 53%
Should not consider new evidence: 34%
Not sure: 13%

DEMOCRATIC DEBATES

Among Democratic voters nationwide

Have the Democratic primary debates influenced your decision in choosing a candidate, or not?

Yes/influenced: 46%
No/Not influenced: 51%

RON’S COMMENT: While 46% at first glance does not seem to be a lot, it is when measuring audience size. Noteworthy: The most liberal Democrats say they’re more influenced by the debates than moderate Democrats (56% vs. 42%). Also, a big swath of of 18-34 years old (59%) say they have been influenced by the debates.

SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE

Among voters nationwide

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “We must maintain a strict separation of church and state.” 

Agree: 68%
Disagree: 23%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats more so than Republicans favor a strict separation of church and state: 76% vs. 56%.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average basedon recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, Jan. 27-28
TEXAS: Texas Lyceum, JAN. 10-19
CALIFORNIA: NPR/KQED, JAN. 25-27
PENNSYLVANIA: Franklin & Marshall, Jan. 20-26
TRUMP’S REMOVAL, SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 26-28
DEMOCRATIC DEBATES: Quinnipiac, Jan. 22-27

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.