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Supreme Court Justices Rated – Superbowl Picks – Iowa and New Hampshire First? – Texas Senate – Dem Unity – Trump and the Economy

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, January 31

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Bernie Sanders: 27%
Joe Biden: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Michael Bloomberg: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This new national survey has Sanders edging Biden for first place…. From the poll report:

  • Among Sanders supporters, just 12% have a positive view of capitalism, while 48% have a negative one. But a majority—60%— view socialism positively, while just 4 percent disagree.
  • Biden’s backers, on the other hand, are generally fairly positive towards capitalism, with 40 percent viewing it favorably and 26% viewing it negatively. But more of his supporters give socialism a thumbs down (35%) than a thumbs up (31%).
  • Among all Democratic primary voters, socialism is viewed favorably by 40% and negatively by 23%, while the remaining 34% say they’re neutral or unsure.
  • Last month, 52 percent of Democratic primary voters said they had reservations or were uncomfortable with Bloomberg’s candidacy, while just 31% were comfortable or enthusiastic about him. Now, Democrats’ perceptions are breaking even, with 45% expressing concerns and 45% saying they’re at least comfortable with his candidacy.

SENATE: TEXAS

Among Democratic voters statewide

Democratic Senate primary
MJ Hegar: 11%
Royce West: 8%
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez: 7%
Amanda Edwards: 6%
Michael Cooper: 5%
Chris Bell: 5%
Victor Hugo Harris: 5%
Sema Hernandez: 5%
Annie “Mama” Garcia: 4%
Adrian Ocegueda: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: Hegar, who lost a U.S. House bid in 2018, is ahead in this Senate primary––but, it’s not by much. This race is wide open, subject to the final weeks of campaigning. West is a state senator, Ramirez is a labor organizer and Bell is a former member of the U.S. House who lost races for governor and mayor of Houston…. The Democratic nominee will take on Sen. John Cornyn (R), who is seeking a fourth term. Handicappers rate the general election solid or likely Republican…. The Democratic primary is March 3.

TRUMP AND THE ECONOMY

Among adults nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy?

Approve: 57%
Disapprove: 36%

RON’S COMMENT: The economy remains Trump’s ace in the hole. This new CBS poll pegs his approval on the issue at 57%, up from 50% in May…. 94% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats and 58% of independents approve of his handling of the economy

SUPREME COURT JUSTICES: RATINGS

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Ruth Bader Ginsburg: 52%/32%
John Roberts: 46%/26%
Sonia Sotomayor: 45%/29%
Clarence Thomas: 42%/37%
Brett Kavanaugh: 38%/44%
Neil Gorsuch: 37%/30%
Elena Kagan: 36%/26%
Samuel Alito: 33%/25%
Stephen Breyer: 31%/20%

RON’S COMMENT: Ginsburg is the only justice with majority favorability. Kavanaugh is the only justice with a net negative rating. Chief Justice Roberts, who recently has been busy with his Senate trial chores, has a good net positive rating.

DEMOCRATIC UNITY

Among Democratic voters nationwide

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS ONLY] Do you think the Democratic party will unite behind whoever wins the 2020 primary, or not?

Yes: 79%
No: 14%

RON’S COMMENT: Nearly 8 in 10 Democratic voters expect to unite behind the nominee. Danger sign for Democrats: Sanders supporters are the least likely to think the party will unite––27% of them say the party will not unite.

IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FIRST

Among voters nationwide

Thinking about the order in which states hold their presidential primaries and caucuses, which would you prefer––the current system in which Iowa and New Hampshire always come first, or a system in which other states come first? 

Iowa and New Hampshire first: 19%
Other states first: 30%
Not sure: 51%

RON’S COMMENT: Not much support for keeping Iowa and New Hampshire first––only 19%. Among Democrats, only 17% favor keeping Iowa and New Hampshire first. Among Republicans, it’s 25%.

SUPERBOWL

Among adults nationwide

Which team do you want to win the Super Bowl: the Kansas City Chiefs, the San Francisco 49ers, or don’t you care who wins the Super Bowl?

Chiefs: 26%
49ers: 21%
Don’t care: 50%

RON’S COMMENT: What’s interesting is that 50% don’t care. The poll also finds that 56% of Americans say they will watch the game (65% of men, 47% of women).

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: WSJ/NBC, Jan. 26-29
TRUMP AND THE ECONOMY: CBS, Jan. 26-29
SUPREME COURT RATINGS, IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FIRST: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 26-28
DEMOCRATIC UNITY, SUPERBOWL: Quinnipiac, Jan. 22-27
TEXAS: Texas Lyceum, Jan. 10-19

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.