03 Feb Iowa, Oh Iowa – Delegate Rollout – New Hampshire, South Carolina, Washington State
Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, February 3
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
Among Democratic caucusgoers statewide
% = Civiqs / Emerson / CBS = Average
RON’S COMMENT: Three Iowa polls and one constant: Sanders tops all of them…. Civiqs shows Sanders first with Warren second. Emerson shows Sanders first and Biden second. CBS has Sanders and Biden even…. Biden’s vote spread poll to poll is a whopping 10 points…. When support is reallocated to second choice for candidates receiving fewer than 15% first choice votes in the Civiqs poll, Sanders has 31%, Warren 25%, Biden 20% and Buttigieg 18%…. Also: 14% say they’re still deciding between a few candidates and 23% say they could still be persuaded to change their mind…. And: 81% of voters 18-34-years-old say they’ll definitely attend the caucus, while 68% of those 65 and older say they will attend. If that age divide materializes tonight, it would greatly help Sanders and hurt Biden.
Has the Iowa caucus system become too clunky for its own good? Here are explanations of how tonight’s caucuses will work––and the latest in the strange matter of the Des Moines Register poll:
Among Democratic voters in each state
New Hampshire Primary
RON’S COMMENT: While all three surveys show Sanders in first place and Biden second, the numbers vary widely. Sanders’ vote goes from 23 to 31 poll to poll, Biden’s 14 to 24, Warren’s 12 to 19, Buttigieg’s 8 to 13, Gabbard’s 3 to 7, Yang’s 1 to 7 and Steyer’s 0 to 8…. After tonight, the nation’s weary eyes turn to New Hampshire. The primary is Feb. 11.
South Carolina Primary
RON’S COMMENT: Generally, Biden has been weaker in Post and Courier polls than other polls. South Carolina has been Biden’s chief firewall, but these results show he’s not that far ahead of Sanders and Sanders is not far ahead of Steyer. South Carolina votes Feb. 29 and has 54 delegates.
RON’S COMMENT: This Washington state primary is March 10 with 89 delegates at stake.
DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE SELECTION
Selection of pledged delegates in primaries and caucuses
RON’S COMMENT: By the end of this month, only 4% of delegates will have been chosen. Then the process takes off and moves very fast. By St. Patrick’s Day, nearly two-thirds of the delegates will have been selected.
Among voters nationwide
RON’S COMMENT: Two polls, two different pictures. WSJ/NBC has four Democrats leading Trump with Biden doing best. IBD/TIPP has Trump ahead or nearly tied, with Biden and Bloomberg doing slightly better.
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: WSJ/NBC, Jan. 26-29; IBD/TIPP, Jan. 23-30
IOWA:Civiqs, Jan. 26-29; Emerson, Jan. 31-Feb. 2; CBS/YouGov, Jan. 22-31
NEW HAMPSHIRE: WHDH/Emerson, Jan. 31-Feb. 2; Boston Herald/FPU, Jan. 29-Feb. 1; UMass Lowell, Jan. 28-Jan. 31
SOUTH CAROLINA: Post and Courier, Jan. 26-29
WASHINGTON: KING-TV/Survey USA, Jan. 26-28
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux