IOWA CAUCUS

Among Democratic caucusgoers statewide

% = Civiqs / Emerson / CBS = Average
Bernie Sanders: 28%/28%/25% = 27
Joe Biden: 15%/21%/25% = 20
Pete Buttigieg: 15%/15%/21% = 17
Elizabeth Warren: 21%/14%/16% = 17
Amy Klobuchar: 8%/11%/5% = 8
Andrew Yang: 5%/5%/NA = 5
Tom Steyer: 2%/4%/NA = 3
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%/1%/NA = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Three Iowa polls and one constant: Sanders tops all of them…. Civiqs shows Sanders first with Warren second. Emerson shows Sanders first and Biden second. CBS has Sanders and Biden even…. Biden’s vote spread poll to poll is a whopping 10 points…. When support is reallocated to second choice for candidates receiving fewer than 15% first choice votes in the Civiqs poll, Sanders has 31%, Warren 25%, Biden 20% and Buttigieg 18%…. Also: 14% say they’re still deciding between a few candidates and 23% say they could still be persuaded to change their mind…. And: 81% of voters 18-34-years-old say they’ll definitely attend the caucus, while 68% of those 65 and older say they will attend. If that age divide materializes tonight, it would greatly help Sanders and hurt Biden.

Has the Iowa caucus system become too clunky for its own good? Here are explanations of how tonight’s caucuses will work––and the latest in the strange matter of the Des Moines Register poll:

• How the Iowa caucuses work read story here
• Iowa will have four sets of results read story here
• Conspiracy theories read story here
• Poll abruptly shelved read story here
• From the editor of the Des Moines Register read story here

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

Among Democratic voters in each state

New Hampshire Primary
% = WHDH / Boston Herald / UMass = Average
Bernie Sanders: 29%/31%/23% = 27.7
Joe Biden: 14%/24%/22% = 20
Elizabeth Warren: 12%/17%/19% = 16
Pete Buttigieg: 13%/8%/12% = 11
Amy Klobuchar: 8%/4%/6% = 6
Tulsi Gabbard: 7%/3%/5% = 5
Tom Steyer: 8%/-/6% = 4.7
Andrew Yang: 7%/1%/2% = 3.3
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: While all three surveys show Sanders in first place and Biden second, the numbers vary widely. Sanders’ vote goes from 23 to 31 poll to poll, Biden’s 14 to 24, Warren’s 12 to 19, Buttigieg’s 8 to 13, Gabbard’s 3 to 7, Yang’s 1 to 7 and Steyer’s 0 to 8…. After tonight, the nation’s weary eyes turn to New Hampshire. The primary is Feb. 11.

South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden: 25%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Tom Steyer: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Generally, Biden has been weaker in Post and Courier polls than other polls. South Carolina has been Biden’s chief firewall, but these results show he’s not that far ahead of Sanders and Sanders is not far ahead of Steyer. South Carolina votes Feb. 29 and has 54 delegates.

Washington Primary
Bernie Sanders: 26%
Joe Biden: 21%
Elizabeth Warren: 16%
Michael Bloomberg: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This Washington state primary is March 10 with 89 delegates at stake.

DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE SELECTION

Selection of pledged delegates in primaries and caucuses

• By February 29: 4% of all delegates will have been selected.
• By March 3: 40% of all delegates will have been selected.
• By March 17: 64% of all delegates will have been selected.
• By April 28: 88% of all delegates will have been selected.
• By June 6: 100% of all delegates will have been selected.

RON’S COMMENT: By the end of this month, only 4% of delegates will have been chosen. Then the process takes off and moves very fast. By St. Patrick’s Day, nearly two-thirds of the delegates will have been selected.

NATIONAL: PRESIDENT

Among voters nationwide

WSJ/NBC poll
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +6 (50-44)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +4 (49-45)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +3 (48-45)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +1 (46-45)

IBD/TIPP poll
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +1 (49-48)
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +1 (48-47)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sanders: +2 (49-47)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +3 (48-45)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +4 (50-46)

RON’S COMMENT: Two polls, two different pictures. WSJ/NBC has four Democrats leading Trump with Biden doing best. IBD/TIPP has Trump ahead or nearly tied, with Biden and Bloomberg doing slightly better.

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