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Random Poll Numbers – Electability – Better Off? – Senate Trial

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, January 3

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%

Same yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on two polls, ranging from 44% (The Economist) to 48% (Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.

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SENATE TRIAL

Among voters nationwide

Do you believe the U.S. Senate will or will not conduct a fair and unbiased trial of Donald Trump? 

Will conduct a fair and unbiased trial: 37%
Will not conduct a fair and unbiased trial: 47%
Not sure: 16%

RON’S COMMENT: Most voters do not think the Senate trial will be fair and unbiased. Republicans more than Democrats (55% vs. 23%) say it will be.

BETTER OFF NOW?

Among voters nationwide

Are you better off now than you were four years ago? 

Better off now: 52%
Better off four years ago: 33%
Not sure: 16%

RON’S COMMENT: This data explains why Trump can win re-election despite having high negative ratings. Even 28% of Democrats say they’re better off now than they were four years ago.

DEMOCRATS AND ELECTABILITY

Among Democrats nationwide

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] If the candidate listed below were to become the Democratic nominee, do you think they would beat or lose to Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election?

Joe Biden
Probably beat Donald Trump: 67%
Probably lose to Donald Trump: 14%

Bernie Sanders
Probably beat Donald Trump: 52%
Probably lose to Donald Trump: 27%

Elizabeth Warren
Probably beat Donald Trump: 49%
Probably lose to Donald Trump: 26%

Pete Buttigieg
Probably beat Donald Trump: 34%
Probably lose to Donald Trump: 28%

RON’S COMMENT: Two-thirds of Democrats think Biden would probably beat Trump and a majority think Sanders would. Warren falls below 50% and Buttigieg comes in last.

RANDOM POLL NUMBERS

From Hart Research

Hart Research Associates collected a series of poll numbers, mostly from its 2019 surveys, 100%-to-1%. Here’s a selection of the findings:

  • 96% of Americans say that tolerance for others is an important value for them personally, including Democrats (98%), independents (96%), and Republicans (95%).
  • 95% of Los Angeles County voters say homelessness is a serious problem in the county.
  • 92% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans say that politics is important in their life. Overall, 87% say politics is important to them, up from 50% in 1990 (Gallup).
  • 91% of seniors say that religion is important to them personally, compared with 59% of 18- to 34-year-olds who say the same.
  • 88% of voters believe that it is important for the federal government to fund science and technology research.
  • 87% of Americans are enthusiastic or comfortable with an African American as president.
  • 82% of Americans would support a federal program that everyone pays into and everyone could access for support including child care, paid family leave, long-term care for a disability, and care for a family member as they get older.
  • 79% of white college-educated Americans pay most of their bills online, compared with 63% overall.
  • 78% of Americans say the way information is shared and spread on social media has a great deal or good amount of responsibility for recent mass shootings.
  • 77% of Americans say that having children is important to them personally, down from 84% in 1998.
  • 74% of 50- to 64-year-olds say they are unprepared to afford long-term care.
  • 70% of college graduates believe that having state legislative and congressional districts created and drawn by a non-partisan commission rather than by state legislatures would improve our democracy.
  • 67% of Americans believe that climate change is a serious problem and action should be taken; 51% felt this way in 1999.
  • 62% of Americans say community involvement is very important to them, an increase from 47% in 1998.
  • 61% of Americans say the increasing use of technology like smart phones and social media to communicate and stay in touch with people is a step in the right direction.
  • 55% of Americans believe that Major League Baseball teams should not be held responsible when a fan is hit by a ball, though 78% support safety netting at ballparks.
  • 40% of Americans believe that the changes in American society and the country becoming more diverse and tolerant of different lifestyles, languages, cultures, and races is a step forward, 14% a step backward, and 43% say some of both.
  • 39% say the direction of the country for the next year will get better, 23% say it will get worse. Among Republicans, 58% say the country will get better, while 27% of Democrats feel similarly.
  • 36% of Americans say the president and the executive branch have too much power, 7% too little power, and 46% the right amount of power.
  • 34% of cancer patients and caregivers of cancer patients report experiencing delays in their or their loved one’s cancer care because their physician was waiting on approval from their health insurance plan for a cancer treatment, test, or prescription medicine.
  • 33% of Americans agree that our system of government works well to prepare and plan ahead to improve our country’s long-term problems, 65% disagree.
  • 32% of Americans made a donation to a charity on Giving Tuesday.
  • 29% of Americans say someone in their household has more than $20,000 in student loan debt.
  • 23% of Americans say Congress and the legislative branch have too much power, 13% say too little, and 48% say about the right amount.
  • 20% of women age 50 and older have applied for a job through an online job search site, compared with 67% of 18- to 49-year-old women.
  • 19% of Americans say the Supreme Court has too much power, 6% say too little, and 59% say about the right amount.
  • 18% of Americans say their standard of living has exceeded their expectations, 34% say it has fallen short, 45% say it has met expectations.
  • 17% of Americans believe that women are more likely than men to get Alzheimer’s Disease, which they are.
  • 16% of Americans with a high school education or less have used a ride-sharing app like Lyft or Uber in the last month, compared with 40% of those with a postgraduate degree who have used ride sharing.
  • 15% of Americans say democracy in America is working pretty well as is, 34% say we need minor modifications, and 49% say we need a complete overhaul or major changes.
  • 14% of Americans play an online multiplayer video game like Fortnite, including 38% of 18- to 49-year-old men.
  • 11% of Americans believe the two-party system works fairly well.

Sources

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
BETTER OFF NOW, SENATE TRIAL, DEMOCRATS AND ELECTABILITY: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 28-31

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.