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Iowa, Oh Iowa – New Hampshire Polls: Sanders Ahead

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, February 4

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (CBS) to 49% (Gallup). Without these extremes, it would be 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating…. Note that Gallup pegs Trump’s approval at 49% today, which is the highest he’s ever received from Gallup. They attributed Trump’s upswing to economic confidence, the recent military action in Iran and foreign trade.

IOWA OBSERVATIONS

By Ron Faucheux

  • Last night’s debacle, if nothing else, will bend the nomination arc more toward an open convention.
  • It appears Iowa’s caucus turnout was less than spectacular, closer to 2016 than 2008. That’s a disappointment for Democrats. The race was unsettled until the end. There was a strange sense that many Iowa Democrats were not yet ready to vote.
  • The muddle helps Bloomberg. He was smart staying out of Iowa––and lucky.
  • Klobuchar was smart to fill dead air last night with a speech. Others followed.
  • Buttigieg gave the best speech. Biden gave the worst.
  • Because we have no results, we can’t say the polls were wrong. We have to wait to reach any conclusions.
  • If anybody asks: Klobuchar is the current frontrunner for the VP nomination.
  • The real winner last night was Donald Trump. Democrats were forced into chaos management.
  • In yesterday’s Lunchtime Politics, we posed the question, “Has the Iowa caucus system become too clunky for its own good?” The answer is painfully obvious today. Yes, the Iowa caucus system needs to be scrapped. Moreover, the Iowa Democratic Party has lost its right to be first in the nation.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

% = Boston Globe / WHDH / WCVB = Average
Bernie Sanders: 24%/32%/25% = 27
Joe Biden: 18%/13%/20% = 17
Elizabeth Warren: 13%/13%/17% = 14.3
Pete Buttigieg: 11%/12%/12% = 11.7
Amy Klobuchar: 6%/12%/5% = 7.7
Tulsi Gabbard: 5%/4%/5% = 4.7
Tom Steyer: 4%/5%/5% = 4.7
Andrew Yang: 3%/5%/4% = 4
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Three new polls from New Hampshire, all taken before Iowa. Our polling average today shows Sanders slightly down from yesterday’s average (-0.7), Biden is down more (-3), Warren is down (-1.7) and Buttigieg is doing a little better (+0.7).

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 28%
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Michael Bloomberg: 14 %
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Three things to note about this national poll: First, it was completed before the Iowa caucus. Second, it’s the lowest vote percentage Biden has ever received in a Morning Consult national poll. Third, it has Bloomberg tying Warren for third place…. This poll also finds that:

  • If Biden was not in the race, 27% of his vote would go to Sanders and 21% would go to Bloomberg.
  • If Warren was not in the race, 35% of her vote would go to Sanders and 22% would go to Biden.
  • If Buttigieg was not in the race, 21% of his vote would go to Biden and 19% would go to Warren.
  • If Sanders was not in the race, 29% of his vote would go to Warren and 27% would go to Biden.
  • Bloomberg takes more votes from Biden (36%) than any other candidate (Sanders 14%, Warren 14%, Buttigieg 10%).

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Who was the only non-incumbent president to win the Iowa caucus twice?

(See answer below)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Boston Globe/Suffolk, Feb. 2-3; WHDH/Emerson, Feb. 1-3; Boston Herald/FPU, Jan. 29-Feb. 1
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, Jan. 27-Feb. 2NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so. 

TRIVIA ANSWER

Bob Dole. He won the Iowa Republican caucus in 1988 (37% of the vote) and 1996 (26% of the vote).

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.