Lunchtime Politics on Twitter

Michelle Obama Could Sway Dems – Biden Tops Dems, Warren Stalls – Impeachment

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, November 4


Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (WaPo/ABC) to 46% (Harris, Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (-1 from Friday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.


Among voters nationwide

Fox News Poll:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +12 (51-39)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (49-41)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (46-41)
Hillary Clinton (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (43-41)
Pete Buttigieg (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (41-41)

RON’S COMMENT: The Fox News poll shows the four best-known Democrats beating Trump, with Biden doing best. Buttigieg ties the president…. Voter interest: 63% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans are “extremely interested” in the election.

WSJ/NBC poll:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (50-41)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (50-42)

RON’S COMMENT: The WSJ/NBC poll shows both Biden and Warren beating Trump by similar margins. That’s better for Warren than most other surveys.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = WSJ/NBC, WaPo/ABC, Fox News = Average
Joe Biden: 27% / 28% / 31% = 28.7
Elizabeth Warren: 23% / 23% / 21% = 22.3
Bernie Sanders: 19% / 17% / 19% = 18.3
Pete Buttigieg: 6% / 9% / 7% = 7.3
Amy Klobuchar: 5% / 2% / 2% = 3
Kamala Harris: 4% / 2% / 3% = 3
Andrew Yang: 3% / 2% / 3% = 2.7
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% / 2% / 2% = 2
Cory Booker: 2% / 2% / 2% = 2
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: In all three of today’s polls, Biden continues to lead the Democratic field nationally. It appears that we can officially declare that Warren’s momentum––which was pretty hot a month ago––has halted. We have to see where it goes from here, but she clearly remains in contention despite the slump…. In the WSJ/NBC poll, Biden is down 4 points, Warren is down 2 points, Sanders is up 5 points since their mid-September survey…. In the ABC/WaPo poll, Biden is down 1, Warren is up 5 and Sanders is down 2 since their early September survey…. In the Fox News poll, Biden is down 1, Warren is down 1 and Sanders is up 2 from early October…. Also in the Fox News poll:

  • Electability: 68% of Democrats think Biden can beat Trump, 57% think Warren can, 54% say Sanders can and only 30% say Buttigieg can.
  • Issue agreement: 72% of Democrats say Biden shares their views on the issues––68% say Sanders, 62% say Warren and 43% say Buttigieg does, too. Warren had previously led many polls on policy issues. In this one, she’s third.
  • If Michelle Obama gets into the nomination race: 50% of Democrats say they would definitely vote for her and 8% say they would never vote for her.
  • If Hillary Clinton gets into the nomination race: 27% of Democrats say they would definitely vote for het and 30% say they would never vote for her.
  • If Michael Bloomberg gets into the nomination race: 6% of Democrats say they would definitely vote for him and 32% say they would never vote for him.


Among Republican voters nationwide

Trump re-nomination findings:

  • In early October, 77% of Republican voters said they wanted Donald Trump to be their 2020 presidential nominee and 17% said they wanted someone else.
  • In late October, 78% of Republican voters say they want Donald Trump to be their 2020 presidential nominee and 15% said they want someone else.

RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s re-nomination support among Republicans remains overwhelming and stable, and has even risen slightly over the last month while the impeachment controversy has raged.


Among Democratic primary/caucus voters in each state

Michigan Primary
Joe Biden: 34%
Bernie Sanders: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads and Sanders is second.

Nevada Caucus
Joe Biden: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads and Warren is second. Compared to another poll taken a month ago, Biden and Warren are up and Sanders is down.


Among voters nationwide

Do you think President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or not?

Yes: 49%
No: 45%

RON’S COMMENT: Support for impeachment and removal edges out opposition, but is under 50%. 47% of whites with a college degree favor impeachment and removal compared to 36% without a degree. 25% of white evangelicals support impeachment and removal.

NEW EVIDENCE: [Asked of those against impeachment] Is there a chance new evidence could make you support impeaching President Trump or is there nothing that would cause you to support impeachment?

New evidence could make you support impeachment: 34%
Nothing would cause you to support impeachment: 57%

RON’S COMMENT: Of those who oppose impeachment, 57% are firm in their stance, but just over a third say new evidence could shift their opinion. Voters under 45 (38%), suburban voters (43%) and whites with a college degree (37%) are most likely to say new evidence could change their position.

ASKING FOR FOREIGN HELP: In general, is it appropriate for President Trump to ask leaders of foreign countries to investigate allegations against political rivals, or not?

Appropriate: 27%
Not appropriate: 64%

RON’S COMMENT: Slightly more than a quarter of Americans believe asking foreign countries to investigate political rivals is appropriate. 54% of Republicans and 46% of conservatives hold that view.  35% of rural whites, 35% of whites without a college degree, 37% of union households and 36% of white men support that position.


Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Fox News, Oct. 27-30
MICHIGAN, NEVADA: Emerson, Oct. 31-Nov. 2
IMPEACHMENT: Fox News, Oct. 27-30

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

Subscribe Now

Contact Us
About Us
Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.