05 Nov Swing States – Candidates Traits – Tuesday Trivia
Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 5
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (WaPo/ABC) to 46% (Harris, Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 13 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +17 (56-39)
RON’S COMMENT: This Washington Post/ABC poll shows every Democrat blowing out surprisingly big leads over Trump nationally. Biden’s lead reaches landslide proportions and three others are double digits. Frankly, these wide margins don’t seem to line up with some of the swing state polling from the New York Times/Siena (below).
SWING STATES: PRESIDENT
Among voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: Florida is a critical swing state that Trump carried last time by a 1-point margin. In this poll, he’s losing to Biden, but is beating Warren and Sanders.
RON’S COMMENT: Wisconsin is a “must win” for Democrats and this poll shows it close, with Biden and Sanders edging Trump. In 2016, Trump won the state by less than a point.
RON’S COMMENT: Pennsylvania is also a “must win” for Democrats and this poll shows it tight, with Biden and Sanders edging Trump. In 2016, Trump won the state by less than a point.
RON’S COMMENT: Michigan is another “must win” for Democrats and this poll has Sanders ahead, Biden down by 1 and Warren down by 7. Numbers like these showing Warren losing to Trump in a key swig state by as many as 7 points when other candidates are running better are raising concerns among Democratic strategists about her electability. Trump won the state last time by two-tenths of a percent.
RON’S COMMENT: Previous polling has shown Biden leading Trump in North Carolina. In 2016, Trump won the state by almost 4 points.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump also won Arizona by almost 4 points in 2016.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads in Iowa, a state he won by more than 9 points in 2016.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads in Texas, a state he won by 9 points in 2016. Castro, the only home state candidate, is losing by the widest margin. Note: This poll was conducted by UT/Texas Tribune. The rest of the polls (above) are from NYT/Siena.
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE QUALITIES
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Thinking about just five of these candidates …. who do you think …. ?
Is the most honest and trustworthy
Has the best chance to defeat Donald Trump in the general election
Would do the most to bring needed change to Washington
Is the strongest leader
Is closest to you on the issues
Best understands the problems of people like you
Has the sharpest mental ability
RON’S COMMENT: Biden is perceived by Democrats as being the most electable and the strongest leader. Warren leads on having the sharpest mental ability. Both Sanders and Biden beat Warren on honesty. Biden, Sanders, and Warren are all close on bringing needed change to Washington (which probably means getting rid of Trump).
Of the three states with gubernatorial elections this year––Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi––in which one did Trump receive the highest percentage of the vote in the 2016 general election?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Washington Post/ABC,
SWING STATES: PRESIDENT: New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 13-26 (Texas poll by UT/Texas Tribune)
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE QUALITIES: Fox News, Oct. 27-30
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
Kentucky. Kentucky voted 62.5% for Trump, Louisiana 58.1% and Mississippi 57.9%.
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux