05 Nov Swing States – Candidates Traits – Tuesday Trivia
Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 5
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%Down 1 from yesterday RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (WaPo/ABC) to 46% (Harris, Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 13 points higher than his approval rating. |
NATIONAL: PRESIDENTAmong voters nationwideJoe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +17 (56-39) RON’S COMMENT: This Washington Post/ABC poll shows every Democrat blowing out surprisingly big leads over Trump nationally. Biden’s lead reaches landslide proportions and three others are double digits. Frankly, these wide margins don’t seem to line up with some of the swing state polling from the New York Times/Siena (below). |
SWING STATES: PRESIDENTAmong voters in each stateFlorida RON’S COMMENT: Florida is a critical swing state that Trump carried last time by a 1-point margin. In this poll, he’s losing to Biden, but is beating Warren and Sanders. Wisconsin RON’S COMMENT: Wisconsin is a “must win” for Democrats and this poll shows it close, with Biden and Sanders edging Trump. In 2016, Trump won the state by less than a point. Pennsylvania RON’S COMMENT: Pennsylvania is also a “must win” for Democrats and this poll shows it tight, with Biden and Sanders edging Trump. In 2016, Trump won the state by less than a point. Michigan RON’S COMMENT: Michigan is another “must win” for Democrats and this poll has Sanders ahead, Biden down by 1 and Warren down by 7. Numbers like these showing Warren losing to Trump in a key swig state by as many as 7 points when other candidates are running better are raising concerns among Democratic strategists about her electability. Trump won the state last time by two-tenths of a percent. North Carolina RON’S COMMENT: Previous polling has shown Biden leading Trump in North Carolina. In 2016, Trump won the state by almost 4 points. Arizona RON’S COMMENT: Trump also won Arizona by almost 4 points in 2016. Iowa RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads in Iowa, a state he won by more than 9 points in 2016. Texas RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads in Texas, a state he won by 9 points in 2016. Castro, the only home state candidate, is losing by the widest margin. Note: This poll was conducted by UT/Texas Tribune. The rest of the polls (above) are from NYT/Siena. |
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE QUALITIESAmong Democratic voters nationwideThinking about just five of these candidates …. who do you think …. ? Is the most honest and trustworthy Has the best chance to defeat Donald Trump in the general election Would do the most to bring needed change to Washington Is the strongest leader Is closest to you on the issues Best understands the problems of people like you Has the sharpest mental ability RON’S COMMENT: Biden is perceived by Democrats as being the most electable and the strongest leader. Warren leads on having the sharpest mental ability. Both Sanders and Biden beat Warren on honesty. Biden, Sanders, and Warren are all close on bringing needed change to Washington (which probably means getting rid of Trump). |
TUESDAY TRIVIAOf the three states with gubernatorial elections this year––Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi––in which one did Trump receive the highest percentage of the vote in the 2016 general election? (See answer below) |
Sources
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Washington Post/ABC,
SWING STATES: PRESIDENT: New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 13-26 (Texas poll by UT/Texas Tribune)
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE QUALITIES: Fox News, Oct. 27-30
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Kentucky. Kentucky voted 62.5% for Trump, Louisiana 58.1% and Mississippi 57.9%.
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux
