Lunchtime Politics on Twitter

New Hampshire Tracker – Coronavirus Epidemic – Bloomberg, Debates – Electability – Sein Fein Leads

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, February 6

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating…. Some, but not all, of the interviewing for these polls was conducted after the State of the Union.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

% = Boston Globe / WHDH = Average
Bernie Sanders: 25%/31% = 28
Pete Buttigieg: 19%/21% = 20
Joe Biden: 12%/12% = 12
Elizabeth Warren: 11%/12% = 11.5
Amy Klobuchar: 6%/11% = 8.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 5%/5% = 5
Andrew Yang: 2%/5% = 3.5
Tom Steyer: 4%/1% = 2.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s tracking polls show a two-way race between Sanders and Buttigieg. Biden, Warren and Klobuchar are vying for third place. Buttigieg has the momentum and Biden is sinking.

  • Since yesterday in the Boston Globe poll: Buttigieg +4, Sanders +1, Warren +1, Biden -3, Klobuchar same.
  • Since yesterday in WHDH poll: Buttigieg +4, Warren +1, Sanders -1, Biden -1, Klobuchar same.
  • The race remains unsettled: 43% of voters say they may still change their minds.

NORTH CAROLINA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 25%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Michael Bloomberg: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads with Sanders and Bloomberg fighting for second place. Two polls from November showed Biden getting 37% and 33% in the state…. North Carolina votes March 3 and has 110 delegates.

CANDIDATE ELECTABILITY

Among Democrats nationwide

% = Would beat Trump / Would lose to Trump
Joe Biden: 64%/15%
Bernie Sanders: 51%/28%
Mike Bloomberg: 47%/22%
Pete Buttigieg: 35%/31%
Elizabeth Warren: 47%/30%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues to have an advantage on general election electability. If he ever loses it, his campaign will collapse. Note that between about half and two-thirds of Democrats do not say the other candidates can beat Trump. Perhaps, that’s why many Democrats are still reluctant to make a pick; they like some of the candidates but have concerns about their ability to beat Trump.

SENATE TRIAL

Among voters nationwide

Do you believe the U.S. Senate has or has not conducted a fair and unbiased trial of Donald Trump? 

Has conducted a fair and unbiased trial: 36%
Has not conducted a fair and unbiased trial: 51%
Not sure: 13%

RON’S COMMENT: 22% of Democrats, 31% of independents and 48% of Republicans say the Senate trial was fair and unbiased. Also, 52% think additional witnesses should have been called and 36% say additional witnesses were not needed.

BLOOMBERG AND DEBATES

Among Democrats nationwide

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] Do you approve or disapprove of the DNC changing the debate qualification rules which would permit Mike Bloomberg to participate in the next Democratic Debate?

Approve rule change: 44%
Disapprove rule change: 26%
Not sure: 31%

RON’S COMMENT: Most Democrats favor the rule change that makes it possible for Bloomberg to qualify for the debates. Voters typically take the side of debate inclusion.

CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMIC

Among U.S. adults nationwide

How concerned are you about a coronavirus epidemic here in the United States? 

Very/somewhat concerned: 62%
Not very/not concerned: 37%

RON’S COMMENT: 56% of men, 68% of women, 73% of Democrats, 55% of independents and 60% of Republicans are very/somewhat concerned…. 15% think most Americans are overreacting to the actual risks of contracting the virus, and 21% say most Americans are not taking the risk serious enough.

Do you think the US government should quarantine people in the United States who have recently been in China? 

Yes, should quarantine: 65%
Should not quarantine: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: 64% of Democrats, 58% of independents and 77% of Republicans favor quarantine.

IRISH GENERAL ELECTION

Among voters in Ireland

Party preference poll
Sein Fein: 25%
Fianna Fail: 23%
Fine Gael: 20%
Other parties: 16%

RON’S COMMENT: Sein Fein has overtaken the other parties for the first time in Saturday’s election, albeit by a slim margin. Fine Gael has led a minority government since 2016. Leo Varadkar is prime minister and the party now have 47 seats in the Dáil. Fianna Fail still catches blame for the brutal recession of 2018. They have 45 seats. Sinn Fein’s leader is Mary Lou McDonald. They now have 22 seats…. This is the first Irish general election with women candidates running in every constituency.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Boston Globe/Suffolk, Feb. 4-5; WHDH/Emerson, Feb. 3-5.
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), FEB. 4-5
CANDIDATE ELECTABILITY, EPIDEMIC, SENATE TRIAL, BLOOMBERG AND DEBATES: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 2-4
IRISH ELECTION: Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI, Jan. 30-Feb. 1

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

Subscribe Now




Contact Us
About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.