06 Feb New Hampshire Tracker – Coronavirus Epidemic – Bloomberg, Debates – Electability – Sein Fein Leads

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, February 6
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating…. Some, but not all, of the interviewing for these polls was conducted after the State of the Union.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARYAmong Democratic primary voters statewide% = Boston Globe / WHDH = Average RON’S COMMENT: Today’s tracking polls show a two-way race between Sanders and Buttigieg. Biden, Warren and Klobuchar are vying for third place. Buttigieg has the momentum and Biden is sinking.
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NORTH CAROLINA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARYAmong Democratic primary voters statewideJoe Biden: 25% RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads with Sanders and Bloomberg fighting for second place. Two polls from November showed Biden getting 37% and 33% in the state…. North Carolina votes March 3 and has 110 delegates. |
CANDIDATE ELECTABILITYAmong Democrats nationwide% = Would beat Trump / Would lose to Trump RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues to have an advantage on general election electability. If he ever loses it, his campaign will collapse. Note that between about half and two-thirds of Democrats do not say the other candidates can beat Trump. Perhaps, that’s why many Democrats are still reluctant to make a pick; they like some of the candidates but have concerns about their ability to beat Trump. |
SENATE TRIALAmong voters nationwideDo you believe the U.S. Senate has or has not conducted a fair and unbiased trial of Donald Trump? Has conducted a fair and unbiased trial: 36% RON’S COMMENT: 22% of Democrats, 31% of independents and 48% of Republicans say the Senate trial was fair and unbiased. Also, 52% think additional witnesses should have been called and 36% say additional witnesses were not needed. |
BLOOMBERG AND DEBATESAmong Democrats nationwide[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] Do you approve or disapprove of the DNC changing the debate qualification rules which would permit Mike Bloomberg to participate in the next Democratic Debate? Approve rule change: 44% RON’S COMMENT: Most Democrats favor the rule change that makes it possible for Bloomberg to qualify for the debates. Voters typically take the side of debate inclusion. |
CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMICAmong U.S. adults nationwideHow concerned are you about a coronavirus epidemic here in the United States? Very/somewhat concerned: 62% RON’S COMMENT: 56% of men, 68% of women, 73% of Democrats, 55% of independents and 60% of Republicans are very/somewhat concerned…. 15% think most Americans are overreacting to the actual risks of contracting the virus, and 21% say most Americans are not taking the risk serious enough. Do you think the US government should quarantine people in the United States who have recently been in China? Yes, should quarantine: 65% RON’S COMMENT: 64% of Democrats, 58% of independents and 77% of Republicans favor quarantine. |
IRISH GENERAL ELECTIONAmong voters in IrelandParty preference poll RON’S COMMENT: Sein Fein has overtaken the other parties for the first time in Saturday’s election, albeit by a slim margin. Fine Gael has led a minority government since 2016. Leo Varadkar is prime minister and the party now have 47 seats in the Dáil. Fianna Fail still catches blame for the brutal recession of 2018. They have 45 seats. Sinn Fein’s leader is Mary Lou McDonald. They now have 22 seats…. This is the first Irish general election with women candidates running in every constituency. |
SOURCES Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls. NEW HAMPSHIRE: Boston Globe/Suffolk, Feb. 4-5; WHDH/Emerson, Feb. 3-5. NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), FEB. 4-5 CANDIDATE ELECTABILITY, EPIDEMIC, SENATE TRIAL, BLOOMBERG AND DEBATES: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 2-4 IRISH ELECTION: Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI, Jan. 30-Feb. 1 |
Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.
The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux