Lunchtime Politics on Twitter

Drain the Swamp? – Michigan Senate – Right Track – Congress Rated

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, November 6

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: The average shifted a bit in President Trump’s favor today. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Politico) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-3 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = Politico/The Economist = Average
Joe Biden: 32% / 26% = 29
Elizabeth Warren: 20% / 25% = 22.5
Bernie Sanders: 20% / 14% = 17
Pete Buttigieg: 7% / 8% = 7.5
Kamala Harris: 5% / 6% = 5.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% / 3% = 2.5
Andrew Yang: 3% / 1% = 2
Amy Klobuchar: 2% / 2% = 2
Cory Booker: 2% / 2% = 2
Julian Castro: – / 3% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Two dueling polls today. One poll shows Biden with a clear lead and Sanders and Warren battling for second place. The other shows a tighter contest at the top with Sanders a more distant third. Since last week’s Politico/Morning Consult poll, there has been little movement for anybody. Since last week’s Economist/YouGov poll, Biden is down 1, Warren is up 2 and Sanders is the same.

NEVADA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS

Among Democratic caucus-goers statewide

Joe Biden: 29%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a clear lead in Nevada, with Warren and Sanders vying for second place.

MICHIGAN: SENATE 2020

Among voters nationwide

Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +6 (46-40)

RON’S COMMENT: This is a rather lackluster performance by incumbent Peters, who has a relatively low profile for a U.S. senator. He was first elected in 2014, defeating Republican Terri Lynn Land. Businessman and combat veteran James ran a strong race in 2018 when he challenged the state’s other senator, Debbie Stabenow (D). In that race, he lost by about the same 6-point margin that he’s losing by in this poll.

CONGRESS

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?

Approve: 23%
Disapprove: 64%

RON’S COMMENT: Congressional approval, which is higher than its been since April, is about half as much as presidential approval.

RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK

Among voters nationwide

Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

Right direction: 30%
Wrong track: 61%

RON’S COMMENT: These numbers haven’t moved much in recent months. However, since November of 2018, right direction has gone down 5 points and wrong track has gone up 6 points.

CONGRESS

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?

Approve: 23%
Disapprove: 64%

RON’S COMMENT: Congressional approval, which is higher than its been since April, is about half as much as presidential approval.

DRAIN THE SWAMP

Among voters

Donald Trump promised to “drain the swamp” when he got to Washington. Would you say that he has made progress draining the swamp, that he has made the swamp worse, or that nothing has really changed?

Made progress: 30%
Made swamp worse: 37%
Nothing has really changed: 25%

RON’S COMMENT: The percentage saying Trump has made progress is up 7 points from June, when it was 23%. But, it’s the same as it was in November 2018, at 30%.

Ever wonder what’s being said about your company, brand, or industry in the past year?

Before launching a marketing, public relations, advocacy, or advertising campaign conducting an analysis of traditional and social media can provide valuable insights. We call this review a media audit. Learn more about what a media audit is and when it can be useful in our blog post here.

Sources 

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, Oct. 28-Nov. 3; The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 3-5
NEVADA: Nevada Independent, Oct. 28-Nov. 2
MICHIGAN: Emerson, Oct. 31-Nov. 2
CONGRESS, DRAIN THE SWAMP, RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK: Monmouth, Oct. 30-Nov. 3

When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

Subscribe Now




Contact Us
About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.