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New Hampshire Polls – South Carolina Primary – North, South Carolina Senate – Better Off Than Four Years Ago?

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, February 7

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating…. Some, but not all, of the interviewing for these polls was conducted after the State of the Union.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

Among Democratic voters in each state

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY
% = Monmouth / Boston Globe / WHDH = Average
Bernie Sanders: 24%/24%/32% = 26.7
Pete Buttigieg: 20%/23%/23% = 22
Joe Biden: 17%/11%/11% = 13
Elizabeth Warren: 13%/13%/13% =13
Amy Klobuchar: 9%/6%/9% = 8
Tom Steyer: 3%/3%/2% = 2.7
Tulsi Gabbard: 4%/4%/6% = 4.7
Andrew Yang: 4%/3%/2% = 3
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Sanders is first and Buttigieg second in today’s New Hampshire average…. Since yesterday in the Boston Globe tracker, Sanders is -1 and Buttigieg is +4. Since yesterday in the WHDH tracker, Sanders is +1 and Buttigieg is +2…. The Monmouth poll was taken a day or two before the other two polls. The two tracking polls show Sanders’ lead over Buttigieg much smaller…. From the Monmouth poll report:

  • “Many voters in New Hampshire remain open to switching their support. The muddle out of Iowa hasn’t narrowed the field, but there are some hints in the poll that Buttigieg could be helped and Biden hurt as the caucus results start to sink in.”
  • “Only half (49%) of New Hampshire primary voters are firmly set on their candidate choice.”
  • “The poll finds that 78% of primary voters say the Iowa caucus results didn’t change their thinking about which candidate to back. Another 15% said Iowa made them take a second look at their candidate choice, but only 3% report actually changing their vote intention because of it.”
  • “About 1 in 4 (24%) say they feel more confident about their candidate choice because of the Iowa results and just 8% say they are less confident.”
  • “Biden is the only candidate with a significant number of supporters who are now less confident in their choice (20%). Buttigieg is, by far, the candidate whose supporters are likely to say the Iowa outcome makes them feel more confident about their choice (56%).”

SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
Joe Biden: 37%
Tom Steyer: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This poll was taken before Iowa. It would be interesting to see how Biden’s lead has fared in more recent days…. In any case, Biden leads African American voters in South Carolina with 44%, Steyer is second with 25%, Sanders third at 10% and Warren fourth at 9%. Others have 2% or less…. The primary is Feb. 29 and the state has 54 delegates.

SOUTH CAROLINA: SENATE 2020

Among voters statewide

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) over Jaime Harrison (D): +13 (51-38)

RON’S COMMENT: Graham is seeking a fourth term. Harrison is former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party. Handicappers rate the general election safe Republican.

NORTH CAROLINA: SENATE PRIMARY

Among Democratic voters statewide

Democratic Primary
Cal Cunningham: 29%
Erica Smith: 10%
Steve Swenson: 4%
Trevor Fuller: 3%
Atul Goel: 2%
Undecided: 52%

RON’S COMMENT: Cunningham has strengthened over the past few weeks––he’s up 7 points and Smith is down 2 points. If Democrats nominate a strong general election candidate, they have a real chance to defeat Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in November…. Cunningham, 46, is a former state senator and a major in the U.S. Army Reserves. He ran for the U.S. Senate in 2010, but lost the Democratic nomination to Elaine Marshall that year…. Smith, 50, is a state senator…. Handicappers rate the general election tossup or lean Republican.

BETTER OFF THAN FOUR YEARS AGO?

Among voters nationwide

Are you better off now than you were four years ago? 

Better off now: 48%
No, better off four years ago: 34%
Not sure: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: 26% of Democrats, 40% of independents, 74% of Republicans, 42% of those with incomes below $50k and 52% of those with incomes over $100k say they’re better off now.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Monmouth, Feb. 3-5; Boston Globe/Suffolk, Feb. 5-6; WHDH, Feb. 4-6
SOUTH CAROLINA: East Carolina Univ., Jan. 31-Feb. 2
BETTER OFF THAN FOUR YEARS AGO? The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 2-4

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.