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Iran – New Mexico Senate – GOP Loyalty Test – Sanders leads New Mexico

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, January 8


Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (The Economist) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 47%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (up 1 from yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating. NOTE: These numbers still do not give us a clear reading as to where Trump’s numbers are post-Suleimani killing.


Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling Iran? 

Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 53%

RON’S COMMENT: 8% of Democrats, 39% of independents and 87% of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of Iran. This poll was mostly completed before Iran’s retaliatory actions had been announced last night…. In this sounding, there does not appear to be a “rally around the flag” effect, at least so far…. The survey also shows that 45% of voters approve of the U.S. deploying 3,000 more troops to the Middle East, while 42% oppose doing so.

Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. airstrike in Iraq that killed Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian general?

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 42%
Not sure: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: More voters approve of the killing of Suleimani than disapprove, although approval falls short of a majority. By party: 15% of Democrats, 42% of independents and 84% of Republicans approve.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 27%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Michael Bloomberg: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: This poll will give heart to Warren supporters, showing her in second place over Sanders. Other national polling has her running third. Compared to a week ago in this poll: Biden is down 2, Sanders up 1, Warren up 4 and Buttigieg down 1.


Among voters statewide

Among general election voters:
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +18 (59-41)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +10 (55-45)
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +8 (54-46)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +8 (54-46)

RON’S COMMENT: Republicans have been speculating that New Mexico could move to their side this year, although this poll undercuts that hope. While all four Democrats are easily beating Trump in the state, Sanders does best. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 8 points in New Mexico. The state voted Democratic in six of the last seven presidential elections.

Among Democratic primary voters statewide:
Bernie Sanders: 28%
Joe Biden: 27%
Andrew Yang: 10%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Michael Bloomberg: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Sanders and Biden are vying for first place in New Mexico, with Yang third. The New Mexico primary is June 2. If the race is still going on by then, this state could become an important delegate battle.


Among voters statewide

Ben Ray Luján (D) over Gavin Clarkson (R): +19 (54-35)

RON’S COMMENT: Democratic Sen. Tom Udall is not seeking re-election…. This trial heat shows Democrat Luján, a member of the U.S. House since 2009, leading the race by a substantial margin. He previously served on the state’s Public Regulation Commission….Clarkson, a Republican, served in the Interior Dept. as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Policy and Economic Development – Indian Affairs. He says that he’s the only “doctoral graduate in the history of the Harvard Business School who has placed in a livestock show.” An enrolled member of the Choctaw Nation, Clark gained notoriety when he was forced to prove New Mexico’s statehood while applying for a marriage license in DC.


Among Republicans nationwide

Do you consider yourself to be more a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party? 

More of a supporter of Trump: 45%
More of a supporter of the Republican Party: 23%
Both (volunteered): 21%
Neither (volunteered): 9%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump has managed to dominate the loyalties of most Republicans, even above the party.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IRAN, DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 5-7
NEW MEXICO: Emerson College, Jan 3-6, 2020
REPUBLICAN LOYALTY: Harvard-Harris, December 27-31, 2019

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Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2019 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.