PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Monmouth) Biden +7 (51-44)
(Morning Consult) Biden +6 (50-44)
Average of last five polls: Biden +8.4
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads likely voters by 7 points in this Monmouth poll and, among all registered voters, by 9 points. The new Morning Consult poll shows a slight narrowing of Biden’s lead since earlier in the summer…. Here are internal findings from the Monmouth poll:
- 71% of voters say Biden respects our military troops and veterans a great deal or some. In comparison, only 55% say the same about Trump, for a 16-point difference.
- 64% of voters think it is at least probable that the Russian government is trying to interfere in the election. 57% say the same about the Chinese government.
- 48% of voters are concerned that Trump is too friendly toward Russia and 37% are concerned that Biden may be too friendly toward China.
- Biden remains more popular than Trump. Biden rates 47% favorable/44% unfavorable. Trump rates 40% favorable/53% unfavorable.
Polling the “suckers and losers” issue:
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll (Sept. 3-8) shows that 50% of voters believe media reports that President Trump referred to U.S. soldiers as “suckers” and “losers.” An additional 37% said they did not believe the reports and the rest were not sure.
From Morning Consult’s polling among “military-affiliated” voters:
- Trump leads Biden by 10 points among military-affiliated voters. In 2016, Trump won this group by 18 points, based on exit polling. Keep in mind, there may be differences between a sample of “military-affiliated” voters and a sample based on a database of “active-duty military” personnel, which we recently reported in another poll.
- Biden is polling 7 points ahead of where Hillary Clinton was with military households at about the same time in the campaign.
- 53% of voters in military households approve of Trump’s job performance.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
MICHIGAN (Morning Consult): Biden +10
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Biden +8
MICHIGAN (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +7
FLORIDA (Morning Consult): Biden +5
FLORIDA (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +2
PENNSYLVANIA (Morning Consult): Biden +5
PENNSYLVANIA (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +3
WISCONSIN (Morning Consult): Biden +8
WISCONSIN (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +5
WISCONSIN (Emerson): Biden +7
NORTH CAROLINA (Morning Consult): Biden +1
NORTH CAROLINA (Benenson/GS Strategy): Even
ARIZONA (Morning Consult): Biden +3
ARIZONA (Benenson/GS Strategy): Biden +1
OHIO (Morning Consult): Trump +5
TEXAS (Morning Consult): Even
GEORGIA (Morning Consult): Trump +2
INDIANA (Indy Politics): Trump +14
States Clinton carried in 2016:
MINNESOTA: Biden +5
COLORADO: Biden +6
RON’S COMMENT: Observations––
- Good news for Biden: He’s leading just about everywhere, albeit by slim margins in some states and polls. His leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, two critical states, are the widest.
- Good news for Trump: Ohio. Other polling has shown Biden edging Trump in the state, but this survey has Trump up by 5. Biden carried Ohio by 8 points four years ago…. Today’s polls also show that Trump is still competitive in North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Florida, although he’s slightly or modestly behind in most of them.
- What about Texas? This poll has the race tied, which in itself is notable given the Lone Star state’s Republican history. Trump won it in 2016 by 9 points. The average of the five most recent polls has Trump ahead in Texas, but by a fairly narrow 2.8 points.
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