ALLEGATION AGAINST BIDEN
Among voters nationwide
[Monmouth poll] Have you heard about an allegation that Joe Biden may have sexually assaulted a woman who worked in his Senate office in the 1990s, or have you not heard about this?
Not heard: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: These Monmouth numbers answer one crucial question––do voters even know about Tara Reade’s allegation? The answer is yes…. The Economist poll backs up this conclusion, it also shows that 86% have heard of the allegation.
[Monmouth poll] Do you think this allegation is probably true or probably not true?
Probably true: 37%
Probably not true: 32%
Don’t know: 31%
RON’S COMMENT: No majority has formed either way on this question, although more voters think Biden probably did it than not…. By party: 50% of Republicans, 43% of independents and 20% of Democrats think the allegation is probably true.
[Economist poll] Do you think that the allegation of sexual assault against Joe Biden generally is or is not credible?
Not credible: 23%
Haven’t heard enough: 31%
RON’S COMMENT: More voters say the allegation is credible than not…. By party: 16% of Democrats and 64% of Republicans say the allegation is credible.
[Economist poll] From what you know now, what do you think happened between Joe Biden and Tara Reade in 1993?
Sexual assault: 22%
Sexual harassment, but not sexual assault: 21%
Nothing inappropriate: 17%
Not sure: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: What’s troubling for Biden is that 43% of the electorate believes he committed either sexual assault or harassment (among Democrats, it’s 31%). However, only 17% of the electorate says what he did was nothing inappropriate (31% of Democrats agree)…. Biden needs to convince the 40% who are “not sure”––a substantial number to work with––that he did nothing inappropriate.