TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls. The range is 40% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-3 from yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval.

NATIONAL: PRESIDENT

Among voters nationwide

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = Quinnipiac/Emerson/Morning Consult/HarrisX = Average
Joe Biden: 34%/33%/33%/34% = 33.5
Bernie Sanders: 11%/20%/18%/20% = 17.3
Elizabeth Warren: 15%/14%/13%/12% = 13.5
Kamala Harris: 12%/11%/12%/9% = 11
Pete Buttigieg: 6%/6%/5%/5% = 5.5
Beto O’Rourke: 2%/4%/3%/4% = 3.3
Andrew Yang: 2%/2%/2%/1% = 1.8
Cory Booker: 1%/-/3%/1% = 1.3
Tom Steyer: -/2%/1%/1% = 1
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Four new polls today show remarkable consistency in Biden’s first place position, indicating that he’s regained much of the support he lost after the first debate. Here’s an example of that trend: In the last Quinnipiac poll completed in early July, which was right after the first debate, Biden had dropped to only 22% and Harris jumped up to 20%. Their new poll shows the former VP at 34% (up 12 points) and Harris at 12% (down 8 points)…. For some reason (age cohort?), Quinnipiac measures Sanders’ vote much lower than other polls…. Other findings from Quinnipiac:

• Biden gets 53% of black Democrats, with 8% for Sanders, 7% for Harris and 4% for Warren.
• Women Democrats are 34% for Biden, 15% for Warren, 14% for Harris and 10% for Sanders.
• Very liberal Democrats are 29% for Warren, 25% for Biden, 15% for Sanders and 12% for Harris.
• Somewhat liberal Democrats are 34% for Biden, 16% for Sanders, 14% for Warren and 10% for Harris.
• Moderate/conservative Democrats are 39% for Biden, 12% for Harris, 9% for Warren and 8% for Sanders.

In Morning Consult’s subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 34%, then Sanders 18%, Harris 12% and Warren 11%.

Among all general election voters nationwide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D): even (50-50)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +4 (52-48)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +4 (52-48)

RON’S COMMENT: This Emerson College poll shows Biden with a much narrower lead over Trump than three other recent polls which had the former VP ahead by an average of 9.7 points.

DEMOCRATS: ELECTABILITY, POLICY IDEAS

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Regardless of how you intend to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which candidate do you think has… 

The best policy ideas: Warren 26%, Biden 21%, Sanders 16%, Harris 6%
The best chance of winning against Donald Trump: Biden 51%, Sanders 10%, Harris 8%, Warren 8%

RON’S COMMENT: Among Democratic primary voters nationwide, Warren wins on best policy ideas, while Biden is far ahead on electability.

UK PARTY POLITICS

Among voters in Great Britain

Political Party Preference: 
% = Average of last two polls
Conservative: 31%
Labour: 23%
Lib Dems: 19%
Brexit: 14%
Green: 6%
UKIP: 1%
SNP: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: Now that Theresa May is out and Boris Johnson is in, their Conservative Party is back in first place. In mid-June, the new Brexit Party was edging the Conservatives––but it’s now down to fourth place since Johnson became the Tory leader. Led by Nigel Farage, the Brexit Party is made up of voters who are unhappy with the non-implementation of the 2016 referendum to leave the EU. Political observers in the UK tell us they are unsure where this is all going.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Which current Democratic presidential candidate received a BA in economics from Brown and a law degree from Columbia––and who started his career as an attorney at Davis Polk & Wardell in New York City and then left to launch a website for celebrity-focused philanthropic fundraising?

(See answer below)

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When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

TRIVIA ANSWER

Andrew Yang.