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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden Wins Military Personnel – Better Off – North Carolina, New Hampshire Senate, Governor

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 4


Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (CNN) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.


Among general election voters

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016: 
FLORIDA: Biden +3
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Biden +8
PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Even

RON’S COMMENT: Pennsylvania: The Quinnipiac poll, which often shows Democrats doing better than other polls, has Biden up by 8 points; the Rasmussen poll, which often shows Trump doing better than other polls, has it even. The Quinnipiac poll is about three or four days more recent…. Florida: This poll asked Florida voters which candidate would do a better job on these issues:

  • On handling the economy: Trump 55%, Biden 42%;
  • On handling a crisis: Biden 49%, Trump 47%;
  • On handling the response to the coronavirus: Biden 50%, Trump 45%;
  • On handling health care: Biden 51%, Trump 43%;
  • On handling racial inequality: Biden 53%, Trump 41%
  • Trump job rating in Florida: 46% approve/50% disapprove.
  • Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) job rating in Florida: 45% approve/45% disapprove. On coronavirus, DeSantis is upside down at 45% approve/49% disapprove.


Among active duty U.S. military personnel

Presidential election
Biden over Trump: +4 (41-37)

RON’S COMMENT: This survey was conducted by the Military Times and it shows Biden leading Trump among active duty U.S. military personnel. In October 2016, this survey had Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 20 points. It should be noted that the poll’s sample is based on the Military Times’ subscriber database; this is a difficult audience to survey. The survey was conducted in late July and early August.


Among voters in each state

John Hickenlooper (D) over Sen. Cory Gardner (R): +9 (48-39)

COMMENT: Despite earlier campaign missteps, Hickenlooper remains well ahead in this Senate race. He’s beating incumbent Gardner by a whopping 29 points among independents…. Local pols believe that Gardner, a promising new face on the national scene when he was first elected to the Senate six years ago, is now weighted down by Trump. Hickenlooper has focused attacks on Gardner’s votes to repeal Obamacare and its protections for pre-existing conditions…. Handicappers rate the race tilt/lean Democratic or tossup.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Don Bolduc (R): +16 (53-37)
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Corky Messner (R): +18 (54-36)

COMMENT: Incumbent Shaheen is well ahead of both Republican challengers. Bolduc, who leads Messner 52-31 in the GOP primary, is a former Special Forces brigadier general. The primary is Sept. 8…. Shaheen’s rating is 50% favorable/12% neutral/35% unfavorable…. Handicappers rate the general election safe to likely Democratic.

Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +2 (47-45)

COMMENT: The margins have been bouncing around. Handicappers still rate the race a tossup.


Among voters in each state

Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Dan Feltes (D): + 24 (57-33)
Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Andru Volinsky (D): + 26 (58-32)

COMMENT: Incumbent Sununu posts big leads over both Democratic challengers…. The Democratic primary is Sept. 8 and this poll shows Volinsky ahead by 2 points…. Handicappers rate the general election likely/lean Republican.

Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): + 9 (51-42)

COMMENT: Incumbent Cooper holds on to a solid lead. Handicappers rate the race lean/likely Democratic.


Among voters nationwide

Overall, do you think the country is better off or worse off today than it was in 2016?

Better: 38%
Worse: 58%

COMMENT: A bad sign for Trump, fewer than four in ten think the country is better off now than it was four years ago. 84% of Republicans think the country is better off, while 95% of Democrats and 60% of independents think the country is worse off. Women (63%), African-Americans (87%), and Hispanics (60%) are most likely to think the country is worse off.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY: Military Times, July 27–Aug. 10
COLORADO: Morning Consult, Aug. 21-30
NEW HAMPSHIRE: UNH, Aug. 28-Sept. 1
NORTH CAROLINA: Monmouth, Aug. 29-Sept. 1
FLORIDA: Quinnipiac, Aug. 28-Sept. 1
PENNSYLVANIA: Quinnipiac, Aug. 28-31; Rasmussen, Aug. 25-27
COUNTRY BETTER OFF: Quinnipiac, Aug. 28–31

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.