Among voters in each state
John Hickenlooper (D) over Sen. Cory Gardner: R: +18 (54-36)
RON’S COMMENT: Everyone agrees Republican Gardner is vulnerable, but this poll shows a wider-than-expected margin for Democrat Hickenlooper, a former governor…. Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 5 points in Colorado; Biden currently has a polling advantage in the state…. Handicappers rate the Senate race somewhere between tilt/lean Democratic and a tossup.
(MSU-Bozeman) Gov. Steve Bullock (D) over Sen. Steve Daines (R): +7 (46-39)
(Progress Campaign) Gov. Steve Bullock (D) over Sen. Steve Daines (R): +3 (49-46)
RON’S COMMENT: The Montana State Univ. poll has raised eyebrows. The sample has been criticized for having too many young voters and too few older ones. The survey also had a lengthy 18-day interviewing window…. The other survey from The Progress Campaign shows Democratic challenger Bullock, the incumbent governor, ahead of Republican Senate incumbent Daines, but by a tighter margin…. In any case, this is a contest Republicans cannot afford to lose if they want to hold their Senate majority…. But, let’s wait for additional polling before we reach any conclusions, Montana is not an easy state for Democrats to win…. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican.
(Emerson) Joe Kennedy over Sen. Ed Markey: +16 (58-42)
(UMass Lowell) Joe Kennedy over Sen. Ed Markey: +2 (44-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Kennedy, a member of the U.S. House and grandson of RFK, continues to hold a lead over Democratic incumbent Markey in the Sept. 1 primary––although the size of the lead is in question. These two polls paint different pictures of the race…. Markey won the seat in 2013 when former Sen. John Kerry became Secretary of State…. On other matters:
- Biden’s running mate: The Emerson poll finds that Joe Biden’s voters in Massachusetts are scattered when it comes to his running mate’s selection––29% prefer Elizabeth Warren, 21% favor Kamala Harris and 17% support Amy Klobuchar. For the others: Stacy Abrams 6%, Gretchen Whitmer 3%, Tammy Baldwin 1% and Val Demmings 1%. Though Warren leads, a substantial seven-out-of-ten Massachusetts Democrats have resistance to selecting their own state’s senator for VP.
- Cuomo vs. Biden: Among Massachusetts Democrats in the Emerson poll, 49% prefer Andrew Cuomo as the presidential nominee and 51% prefer Biden, nearly an even split.