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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden’s Lead Expands – New Hampshire, Arizona Senate – Breonna Taylor

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 2


Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 44% (Reuters) to 46% (Rasmussen). The third poll had it at 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020  at approval trend.


Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(CNBC) Biden +13 (54-41)

RON’S COMMENT: This CNBC/Change Research (D) poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday (the debate was Tuesday evening) and gives us the first glimpse of the contest post-debate. The previous CNBC poll, taken 10 days ago, had Biden ahead by 9 points. This new poll finds:

  • 53% of voters believe Biden did a better job in the debate, compared to 29% for Trump.
  • 45% believe Trump performed worse than expectations in the debate, with 11% saying the same for Biden.
  • Only 2% of voters surveyed said the debate changed their vote, versus 98% who said it didn’t.
  • While 77% of voters said the debate did not make them feel proud to be an American, a 55% majority said there should be more debates. Of course, this was before the president’s  coronavirus diagnosis.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016
ARIZONA (USA Today): Biden +4

States Clinton carried in 2016
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Emerson): Biden +7
NEW YORK (Siena): Biden +32

RON’S COMMENT: The Arizona poll was taken before and after the debate and it gives Biden the lead…. The New Hampshire poll was taken after the debate and it gives Biden a clear lead.


Among voters in each state

Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +9 (49-40)

RON’S COMMENT: McSally had hoped the Supreme Court issue would jumpstart her campaign, but this poll shows otherwise. The three previous polls gave Kelly an average 5.7-point lead. Handicappers rate the contest lean or tilt Democratic.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Corky Messner (R): +15 (55-45)

RON’S COMMENT: Challenger Messner has so far failed to make this much of a race. Handicappers rate the contest safe or likely Democratic…. Ticket-Splitting: Republican Gov. Chris Sununu also posts a 15-point lead in his race for re-election.


Among voters nationwide

Use of force justified: Do you think the police were justified or not justified in the amount of force they used in the Breonna Taylor case?

Justified: 28%
Not justified: 53%
Not sure: 19%

VerdictA grand jury in Louisville indicted one of the police officers involved in the shooting with three counts of first-degree wanton endangerment for endangering the lives of Breonna Taylor’s neighbors. No other charges were filed against police officers at the scene. Do you think this was . . . ?

Too harsh on the officers: 10%
Too lenient on the officers: 51%
About right: 24%
Not sure: 16%

COMMENT: Most voters believe the use of force was not justified and that the grandy jury indictment was too lenient on the officers. 83% of Biden’s supporters compared to 11% of Trump’s supporters believe the indictment was too lenient…. The poll also found that 8% of Blacks believe Taylor would have been shot had she been White and 80% believe she would not have been shot. And, 44% of Whites believe Taylor would have been shot had she been White and 33% believe she would not have been shot.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: CNBC/Change Research (D), Sept. 29-30
BREONNA TAYLOR: Economist/YouGov, Sept. 27–30

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.