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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden’s Lead Expands – New Hampshire, Arizona Senate – Breonna Taylor

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 2

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 44% (Reuters) to 46% (Rasmussen). The third poll had it at 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020  at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(CNBC) Biden +13 (54-41)

RON’S COMMENT: This CNBC/Change Research (D) poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday (the debate was Tuesday evening) and gives us the first glimpse of the contest post-debate. The previous CNBC poll, taken 10 days ago, had Biden ahead by 9 points. This new poll finds:

  • 53% of voters believe Biden did a better job in the debate, compared to 29% for Trump.
  • 45% believe Trump performed worse than expectations in the debate, with 11% saying the same for Biden.
  • Only 2% of voters surveyed said the debate changed their vote, versus 98% who said it didn’t.
  • While 77% of voters said the debate did not make them feel proud to be an American, a 55% majority said there should be more debates. Of course, this was before the president’s  coronavirus diagnosis.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016
ARIZONA (USA Today): Biden +4

States Clinton carried in 2016
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Emerson): Biden +7
NEW YORK (Siena): Biden +32

RON’S COMMENT: The Arizona poll was taken before and after the debate and it gives Biden the lead…. The New Hampshire poll was taken after the debate and it gives Biden a clear lead.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters in each state

ARIZONA (USA Today)
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +9 (49-40)

RON’S COMMENT: McSally had hoped the Supreme Court issue would jumpstart her campaign, but this poll shows otherwise. The three previous polls gave Kelly an average 5.7-point lead. Handicappers rate the contest lean or tilt Democratic.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Emerson)
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Corky Messner (R): +15 (55-45)

RON’S COMMENT: Challenger Messner has so far failed to make this much of a race. Handicappers rate the contest safe or likely Democratic…. Ticket-Splitting: Republican Gov. Chris Sununu also posts a 15-point lead in his race for re-election.

BREONNA TAYLOR

Among voters nationwide

Use of force justified: Do you think the police were justified or not justified in the amount of force they used in the Breonna Taylor case?

Justified: 28%
Not justified: 53%
Not sure: 19%

VerdictA grand jury in Louisville indicted one of the police officers involved in the shooting with three counts of first-degree wanton endangerment for endangering the lives of Breonna Taylor’s neighbors. No other charges were filed against police officers at the scene. Do you think this was . . . ?

Too harsh on the officers: 10%
Too lenient on the officers: 51%
About right: 24%
Not sure: 16%

COMMENT: Most voters believe the use of force was not justified and that the grandy jury indictment was too lenient on the officers. 83% of Biden’s supporters compared to 11% of Trump’s supporters believe the indictment was too lenient…. The poll also found that 8% of Blacks believe Taylor would have been shot had she been White and 80% believe she would not have been shot. And, 44% of Whites believe Taylor would have been shot had she been White and 33% believe she would not have been shot.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: CNBC/Change Research (D), Sept. 29-30
STATE POLLS: POLLSTERS INDICATED ALONG WITH RESULTS; MOST INTERVIEWING DONE WITHIN THE LAST WEEK, OR OTHERWISE NOTED.
BREONNA TAYLOR: Economist/YouGov, Sept. 27–30

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.