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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Coney Barrett – VPs – Watching Ohio – Three New Florida Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 15

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Economist) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote

(WSJ/NBC) Biden +11 (53-42)
(Reuters) Biden +10 (51-41)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +8 (50-42-3)
(The Hill) Biden +7 (47-40)
(Rasmussen) Biden +5 (50-45)
Today’s average: Biden +8.2

RON’S COMMENT: Except for The Hill poll, Biden is at or above 50% in all the other surveys.

In the States

States Trump carried in 2016

FLORIDA(Reuters): Biden +2
FLORIDA(St. Pete): Biden +2
FLORIDA(Trafalgar-R): Trump +2

ARIZONA (Reuters): Biden +4
ARIZONA (OH Pred.): Biden +3
ARIZONA (Monmouth): Biden +7

NORTH CAROLINA (NYT): Biden +4
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Biden +1
GEORGIA (Quinnipiac): Biden +7
INDIANA (SurveyUSA): Trump +7

States Clinton carried in 2016

MAINE (Pan Atlantic): Biden +10
VIRGINIA (Roanoke Coll.): Biden +15

RON’S COMMENT: Ohio is getting interesting. Trump won it by 8 points in 2016, but it’s competitive now. Ohio is a “must win” for Trump…. The Arizona polls look good for Biden…. Three Florida polls––two have Biden ahead and one has Trump on top. The other polls show Biden leading North Carolina and Georgia––the former has been in play, but the latter would be a bonus…. Keep in mind that Quinnipiac often shows Democrats doing better than other polls do, and Trafalgar often shows Republicans doing better than do other polls…. Trump is ahead in Indiana, a state he carried in 2016 by 19 points.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Among voters in each state

MAINE 
(Pan Atlantic) Sara Gideon (D) over Sen. Susan Collins (R): +7 (47-40)

MICHIGAN 
(EPIC-MRA) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +6 (45-39)

ARIZONA 
(OH Pred.) Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +5 (50-45)
(Monmouth) Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +10 (52-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Gideon is showing a clear lead in Maine and Peters is holding on in Michigan. Kelly’s lead in Arizona bounces around, but he always has a lead.

CONEY BARRETT CONFIRMATION

Among voters nationwide

The latest poll findings from Morning Consult:

  • Support for Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation to the Supreme Court is 48%, with 31% opposed. Her support is up 2 points from a week ago.
  • 27% of Democrats want to confirm her, while 55% don’t.
  • 38% of independents want to confirm her, while 31% don’t.
  • 77% of Republicans want to confirm her, while 7% don’t

RON’S COMMENT: Despite all the controversy, these numbers on Coney Barrett look good for her––largely because she wins independents and gets a decent 27% from Democrats in addition to strong support among Republicans. Public opinion is not an obstacle to her confirmation.

PENCE VS. HARRIS

Among voters nationwide

Harris

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kamala Harris is handling her job as a U.S. Senator

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 40%

Regardless of your overall opinion of Kamala Harris, do you feel she has the qualifications to be president if something were to happen to Joe Biden? 

Qualified to be president: 47%
Not qualified to be president: 41%
Not sure: 13%

Pence

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Pence is handling his job as Vice President

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 46%

Regardless of your overall opinion of Mike Pence, do you feel he has the qualifications to be president if something were to happen to Donald Trump? 

Qualified to be president: 51%
Not qualified to be president: 35%
Not sure: 13%

RON’S COMMENT: Pence does better on qualifications to be president question than does Harris. On job approval, Harris is slightly net positive, while Pence is slightly net negative.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: Reuters, Oct. 9-13; The Hill, Oct. 10-13; Rasmussen, Oct. 7-13; WSJ/NBC, Oct. 9-12; IBD/TIPP, Oct. 10-14
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.
PENCE VS. HARRIS: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 11-13
CONEY BARRETT CONFIRMATION: Morning Consult, Oct. 9-11

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.