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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Confident, Calm, Stressed – Wisconsin – New Behavior – Trust Coronavirus Information

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, April 2

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 47%

Same as Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 45% (Politico) to 48% (Grinnell, Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 47%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 50% today (-1 from Tuesday), which is 3 points higher than his approval rating.

A note to our readers: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

NATIONAL: PRESIDENT

Among voters nationwide

Biden over Trump: +4 (47-43)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads Trump by 4 points in this poll, which also finds that:

  • Biden’s vote is much softer: Only 17% of Trump supporters say they could be persuaded not to vote for him; however, 43% of Biden supporters say they could be persuaded not to vote for him.
  • Personal ratings: Biden’s personal rating is 46% favorable/42% unfavorable and Trump is 43% favorable/51% unfavorable. Trump’s “hard” unfavorable is 39% and Biden’s “hard” unfavorable is 25%.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

(The Hill) Biden over Sanders: +22 (54-32)
(Morning Consult) Biden over Sanders: +25 (61-36)
(The Economist) Biden over Sanders: +15 (55-40)
Average: Biden +20.7

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds solid leads over Sanders in every recent national poll.

TRUMP: HANDLING THE CORONAVIRUS SITUATION

Among adults nationwide

Trump’s handling of coronavirus
% = Approve/Disapprove
(Grinnell-Selzer poll): 50%/43%
(The Economist poll): 50%/42%

RON’S COMMENT: These two polls show almost identical results…. According to The Economist poll, 48% of men, 52% of women, 22% of Democrats, 47% of independents and 89% of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus situation. Other observations and findings from The Economist poll:

  • Women and Trump: That 52% of women approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus should be unsettling for Democrats––Biden’s campaign is counting on women voting Democratic in heavy numbers.
  • Biden and the coronavirus: More unsettling internal numbers for Democrats––38% of voters nationwide say they’re “confident” Joe Biden could handle the coronavirus issue wisely, while 46% say they’re “uneasy” about his approach.
  • Biden and an economic recession: And still more unsettling for Democrats––38% of voters nationwide say they’re “confident” Joe Biden could handle an economic recession wisely, while 48% say they’re “uneasy” about his approach.
  • Congress on the coronavirus: 47% approve of the job Congress is doing handling the coronavirus and 40% disapprove. By party––59% of Democrats, 36% of independents and 46% of Republicans approve.

WISCONSIN

Among voters statewide

GENERAL ELECTION
Biden over Trump: +3 (48-45)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden edges Trump in critical Wisconsin…. In 2016, Trump carried Wisconsin by seven-tenths of a point. In the last eight presidential elections, Democrats won Wisconsin seven times.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Biden over Sanders: +28 (62-34)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden is beating Sanders by a substantial margin. In 2016, Sanders won the Wisconsin primary against Hillary Clinton by a 57-43 margin.

JOB RATINGS (among all voters)
% = Approve/Disapprove

  • Pres. Donald Trump (R): 48%/49%
  • Gov. Tony Evers (D): 65%/29%

FAVORABILITY RATINGS (among all voters)
% = Favorable/Unfavorable

  • Sen. Ron Johnson (R): 35%/32%
  • Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D): 40%/39%

RON’S COMMENT: The federal officials are all struggling to keep their ratings above water, but Wisconsin’s governor is by far the most popular official tested.

TRUST INFORMATION SOURCES

Among adults nationwide

I’m going to mention some sources with information that might help you understand what is happening with the new coronavirus that is affecting Americans. For each, please tell me if this is a source you completely trust, mostly trust, mostly distrust, or completely distrust. 

% = Completely or Mostly Trust

  • Your doctor: 91%
  • Government experts in public health: 83%
  • Governor of your state: 72%
  • VP Mike Pence: 50%
  • President Trump: 46%

BEHAVIOR

Among adults nationwide

[Based only on those for whom it applies] For each of the following guidelines that Americans have been asked to follow, please tell me if this is possible for you to do and you’ve mostly done it, possible for you to do but you’ve mostly not done it, or is not possible for you to do. If an item does not apply to you, just say so. 

% = Mostly done it

  • Washed hands more frequently: 98%
  • Stayed away from gatherings of 10 or more people: 91%
  • Mostly stayed inside: 84%
  • Changed travel plans: 82%
  • Worked from home: 60%

RON’S COMMENT: When possible, most Americans are now taking precautions and socially distancing.

STATE OF MIND

Among adults nationwide

For each, please tell me if this does or does not describe your state of mind a lot of the time—just answer yes or no. 

% = Yes 

  • Confident Americans will get through this and be OK: 88%
  • Calm: 72%
  • Stressed: 55%
  • Boxed in: 42%
  • Scared: 39%
  • Confused: 34%
  • Angry: 31%
  • Unconcerned: 22%
  • Lonely: 21%
  • Panicked: 18%
  • Feeling doomed: 15%

RON’S COMMENT: Majorities of Americans are confident, calm and stressed in this time of national peril.

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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT, TRUST INFORMATION, NEW BEHAVIOR, STATE OF MIND: CORONAVIRUS SITUATION: Selzer/Grinnell College, March 27-30
WISCONSIN: Marquette Univ., March 24-29
RATING: TRUMP HANDLING OF CRONAVIRUS: Selzer/Grinnell College, March 27-30; The Economist/YouGov, March 29-31

Lunchtime Politics is owned and published by Ron Faucheux, Chief Analyst at Certus Insights. For interviews or speeches about polling and political trends, contact Dr. Faucheux at rfaucheux@certusinsights.com.

The publisher of this report cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2020 Ronald A. Faucheux

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About Us
Ron Faucheux
rfaucheux@certusinsights.com

Dr. Faucheux is a nationally respected public opinion analyst with a unique background in public policy and legislative research, public communications and message strategies. He combines professional competence with pragmatic problem solving skills.